Gambler's Fallacy
The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that after a streak of one outcome in independent random events, the opposite outcome is more likely to occur to balance things out.
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Spot the gaps between a persuasive argument and a sound one.
The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that after a streak of one outcome in independent random events, the opposite outcome is more likely to occur to balance things out.
The genetic fallacy is committed when a conclusion is based solely on the origin of a claim, ignoring that the origin does not determine the truth-value of the claim.
A logical fallacy that excuses contradictions by appealing to divine mystery, refusing to revise theological ideas in light of reason.
A good argument in deductive reasoning must be valid (conclusion follows from premises) with all true premises (sound). In inductive reasoning, it must be strong (conclusion likely follows) with all true premises (cogent). Bad arguments fail one or both conditions, often due to formal or informal fallacies.
Taleb argues that blaming a financial crisis on greed alone leaves the system’s vulnerability unexplained. He favors examining how institutions contain or amplify behavior that has long existed.
In this passage, Taleb connects the green lumber fallacy with a distinction between predicting an event and managing its impact. Changing exposure can reduce harm even when the event remains hard to forecast.
Guilt by association assigns someone a fault or belief merely because of a connection to another person or group. The connection must support the particular inference; shared membership or contact alone does not establish shared guilt.
Hasty generalization is a logical fallacy that occurs when a conclusion about a group is drawn from an insufficient or non-representative sample, violating the principles of proper inductive reasoning.
Making an argument in such a way that it does not clearly state your position, allowing you to back out later and claim you were right all along.
Hedging is a logical fallacy that involves systematically weakening a claim—or putting forward an unreasonably restricted initial claim—to avoid refutation when faced with counter-evidence. It often uses understatement, such as detensification, qualification, or substitution, to preserve a position without admitting the revised claim differs from the original.
The historian’s fallacy is an informal logical fallacy where historical events are interpreted with biased hindsight, making warning signs seem obvious only in retrospect, while ignoring evidence that pointed in other directions at the time.
The homunculus fallacy occurs when an explanation invokes an infinite regress by describing a phenomenon in terms of the very phenomenon it aims to explain, often by treating a part of a system (like the brain) as if it were a separate agent.
Stating several uncontroversially true statements in succession, followed by a claim that the arguer wants the audience to accept as true. This is a propaganda technique and a logical fallacy where the audience lends more credibility to the last claim because it was preceded by true statements.
The fallacy of asserting a speculative claim about what would have happened under different circumstances without evidence, treating counterfactuals as fact.
The if-by-whiskey fallacy is a rhetorical trick in which a speaker avoids taking a clear position on a controversial issue by using emotionally charged language to support both sides, making the answer contingent on the questioner's own stance. It reduces substantive debate to mere semantics.
A logical fallacy where a response to a question is contingent on the questioner’s opinions and uses words with strong connotations to appear to support both sides of an issue, common in politics.
A formal fallacy that occurs when switching the subject and predicate of a categorical proposition and negating each results in an invalid argument form, specifically for type E ('no') and type I ('some') propositions.
A formal logical fallacy in categorical syllogisms where the major term is distributed in the conclusion but not in the major premise.
These formal fallacies occur in categorical syllogisms when a term is distributed in the conclusion but not in the premises, violating the rule that no term can be treated as universal in the conclusion unless it was universal in the premises.
A formal fallacy in categorical syllogisms where the minor term is distributed in the conclusion but not in the minor premise.
Knowing that two names refer to the same person does not mean someone else recognizes that identity. Substituting those names inside a statement about what that person believes or knows can therefore produce a false conclusion.
An inappropriate appeal to authority treats someone’s status as sufficient support for a claim or action when their expertise, relevance, or independence is in doubt. Relevant expert testimony can provide evidence, but titles and fame alone do not settle an argument.
Inconsistency is a logical fallacy where one or more propositions are asserted that cannot all be true. It also refers to holding multiple views or beliefs that cannot all be true simultaneously.
The inflation of conflict fallacy exaggerates the amount of disagreement among experts in a field to invalidate claims or policies, often by presenting fringe opinions as equal to consensus, as seen in global warming denial or creationist arguments.
Informal fallacies are errors that require attention to an argument’s content, language, or context to identify. Examples include unsupported causal claims, circular reasoning, hasty generalization, irrelevant appeals, and shifts in the meaning of a term.
A set of 17 scenarios each committing an informal logical fallacy, used for practice in identifying fallacies.
The intentional fallacy is the error of judging a work of art based on the artist's intention rather than on the work itself and the evidence it presents. It assumes the artist's intention is the definitive meaning, which is often inaccessible or irrelevant to interpretation.
An invalid categorical syllogism where the conclusion does not follow: from 'No police dogs are old' and 'Some highly trained dogs are old', it incorrectly concludes that some highly trained dogs are police dogs.
The inverse error (denying the antecedent) is a logical fallacy that incorrectly infers the negation of the consequent from the negation of the antecedent in a conditional statement.
The inverse error is a deductive fallacy that occurs when one denies the antecedent of a conditional statement and concludes the negation of the consequent. It is deductively invalid but can be inductively plausible.
An irrelevant conclusion fails to answer the issue or receive the support claimed from its premises. Barbone uses the label broadly for conclusions that do not follow, including conclusions that happen to be true.
The is-ought fallacy occurs when an argument moves from a purely descriptive statement ('is') to a prescriptive conclusion ('ought') without justification, a common flaw in moral and practical reasoning.
The is/ought fallacy is an unsupported move from descriptive premises about what is the case to a normative conclusion about what ought to be done. Nelson examines the doctrine that such inferences must fail, including counterexamples that shift the debate from logical validity to whether the premises can justify a moral belief.
A logical fallacy where a conclusion is drawn without sufficient reasoning or evidence, often due to haste or emotional bias.
The Just Because Fallacy occurs when a person refuses to provide reasons or evidence for a claim, instead appealing to their own authority by saying phrases like 'because I said so' or 'just trust me'. This fallacy undermines productive argumentation and fails to address the question at hand.
The just-in-case fallacy uses an alarming possibility to justify a precaution without adequately assessing its plausibility, consequences, or costs. Planning for a rare catastrophe can still be reasonable.
Kettle logic is a logical fallacy where multiple contradictory premises are presented to support a single conclusion, making it impossible for all premises to be true simultaneously. The name comes from a story by Sigmund Freud of a man defending himself with three inconsistent claims about a borrowed kettle.
Choosing more unreasonable explanations for phenomena over more defensible ones, contrary to the principle of parsimony (Occam's Razor).
Feinberg’s legalistic mistake occurs when a moral argument borrows the apparent precision of a legal term without supplying criteria for applying it. Using words such as murder, right, or duty outside law is not itself the mistake.
That some medical interventions extend life does not imply that every intervention is beneficial. Taleb uses this logical distinction to argue for weighing treatment benefits against harm; his specific claims about mammograms and strikes require evidence beyond the excerpt.
Naming a category may leave a causal question unanswered. The limited-depth label applies when an explanation stops at classification without identifying what about that membership would explain the outcome.
The fallacy of offering a mere definition or rephrasing in place of a genuine explanation, resulting in an incomplete or circular account.
The line-drawing fallacy treats the lack of a perfectly precise boundary as a reason to deny a meaningful distinction. It can also involve demanding precision that the argument does not need. Asking where to set a practical threshold is legitimate; the question is whether an imperfect cutoff invalidates the distinction or policy.
A loaded question embeds an unsupported or disputed assumption so that a direct answer can appear to accept it. Identify and address the assumption before answering on its terms.
The false dichotomy that using emotions is irrational and using logic is emotionless. In reality, one can be both emotional and logical, and the most effective state combines both.
Using technical tools of logic in a pedantic manner by focusing on trivial details instead of directly addressing the main issue in a dispute.
The ludic fallacy is the mistake of applying simplified, game-like statistical models (e.g., coin flips) to real-world uncertainty, ignoring real-life complexities and the possibility of black swan events.
A fallacy that involves presenting statistical data in a biased way or interpreting statistics without questioning the methods behind collecting and presenting the data.
The mistaken belief that a single, simple solution will solve a complex problem, often ignoring trade-offs, feasibility, and unintended consequences.
The masked man fallacy occurs when unjustified conclusions about identity are drawn from limited beliefs, such as assuming that because someone does not believe their father is a masked robber, the masked robber cannot be their father.
A logical fallacy where a question is asked that cannot be answered with any rational meaning, such as 'What is north of the North Pole?' or using temporal terms outside of time.
The middle ground fallacy occurs when one assumes that the truth must lie somewhere between two conflicting views, without considering evidence. This flawed reasoning is often a result of intellectual laziness, as the middle ground is not always correct.
The mind projection fallacy occurs when we wrongly attribute properties of our own mental states or perceptions to external objects, assuming that our subjective experiences reflect objective features of the world. For example, concluding that sugar is inherently sweet, or projecting harmful stereotypes onto groups based on biased judgments.
A small number of dramatic and vivid events are taken to outweigh a significant amount of statistical evidence.
The missing data fallacy treats unavailable or unknown information as if it already confirms a claim. It shields the claim from challenge without supplying the evidence needed to assess it.
A logical fallacy that occurs when someone dismisses a proximate cause as irrelevant to an outcome, or overinflates its importance, often to avoid responsibility or obscure the causal role of immediate triggers.
The fallacy of assuming that what one does not understand is nonsense or lacking intelligence, leading to a dismissal of valuable knowledge that is not immediately comprehensible.
A modal fallacy involves making a formal argument invalid by confusing the scope of what is actually necessary or possible.
The moralistic fallacy occurs when one concludes that something is a particular way because it should or ought to be that way, or concludes that something cannot be a particular way because it should not be that way.
A logical fallacy where an arguer demands more and more points to be addressed after the initial counter-argument has been satisfied, refusing to concede or accept the opponent's argument.