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Logical Fallacies

Greed as a Cause (Epiphenomenon Fallacy)

Taleb argues that blaming a financial crisis on greed alone leaves the system’s vulnerability unexplained. He favors examining how institutions contain or amplify behavior that has long existed.

THE IDEA

Greed as a Cause

Whenever an economic crisis occurs, greed is pointed to as the cause, which leaves us with the impression that if we could go to the root of greed and extract it from life, crises would be eliminated. Further, we tend to believe that greed is new, since these wild economic crises are new. This is an epiphenomenon: greed is much older than systemic fragility. It existed as far back as the eye can go into history. From Virgil’s mention of greed of gold and the expression radix malorum est cupiditas (from the Latin version of the New Testament), both expressed more than twenty centuries ago, we know that the same problems of greed have been propounded through the centuries, with no cure, of course, in spite of the variety of political systems we have developed since then. Trollope’s novel The Way We Live Now, published close to a century and a half ago, shows the exact same complaint of a resurgence of greed and con operators that I heard in 1988 with cries over of the “greed decade,” or in 2008 with denunciations of the “greed of capitalism.” With astonishing regularity, greed is seen as something (a) new and (b) curable. A Procrustean bed approach; we cannot change humans as easily as we can build greed-proof systems, and nobody thinks of simple solutions.1

Likewise “lack of vigilance” is often proposed as the cause of an error (as we will see with the Société Générale story in Book V, the cause was size and fragility). But lack of vigilance is not the cause of the death of a mafia don; the cause of death is making enemies, and the cure is making friends.

When to use it

  • Analyzing economic crises by examining regulatory design, incentives, and risk aggregation alongside individual conduct.

  • Investigating a failed project by checking incentives and system vulnerabilities as well as individual decisions.

  • Examining how leverage, interconnectedness, and investor behavior interact during a market downturn.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

Historical recurrence of greed blame

Trollope’s 1875 novel The Way We Live Now depicts the same complaint of greed and con operators seen in the 1988 “greed decade” and the 2008 financial crisis, showing that greed is not new but a constant scapegoat.

02

Mafia don analogy

Taleb uses a mafia don’s death to contrast blaming a lapse in vigilance with asking why the person had dangerous enemies. The analogy shifts attention toward underlying exposure; it does not establish that vigilance played no causal role.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. For a crisis blamed on greed, what incentives and structural vulnerabilities might also help explain the outcome?

  2. How can systems be designed to withstand human greed rather than trying to eliminate it?

  3. Can you identify a personal or historical situation where a supposed 'greed' cause was actually an epiphenomenon?

Often confused with

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • Antifragile (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
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