ONE OF SEVEN WAYS OF SEEING
Make useful decisions when time and information are limited.
When dividing something into fractions is difficult, artificially divide into two units, then further subdivide each until satisfactory. This artificial technique is easier than finding multiple fractions at once and encourages fractionation of a situation.
Poker players must make hundreds of rapid decisions under time pressure and financial stakes, requiring them to harmonize their reflexive and deliberative systems to execute best intentions.
When decision-makers don't act on a problem, it's often because they underestimate its severity. Using concrete external examples (like fines or penalties faced by others) can make the risk feel real and urgent, helping to secure approval for mitigation measures.
Analogies are used as provocative devices to force new perspectives on a problem. They need not fit perfectly; mismatches can stimulate creative thinking.
A heuristic for assessing the credibility of academic sources by checking how many times an author's work has been cited in Google Scholar, helping to distinguish between well-regarded experts and those with little scholarly impact.
A technique where experts present their views to a small audience of curious nonexperts (e.g., undergraduates) while other experts listen from the sidelines. This allows experts to explain without fear of insulting peers, reducing miscommunication and helping clarify positions.
A heuristic for quickly understanding the landscape of scholarly debate on a topic by scanning Wikipedia's summary of key positions, using the example of the atomic bomb debate to illustrate how to evaluate the strength of a claim relative to the consensus.
Use Wikipedia to orient yourself, then follow its references to an overview of the debate. Match abbreviated citations to full bibliography entries, choose a source suited to your research question, and check its author and publication before relying on it.
The text explains how to use Wikipedia's references to validate sources, using the example of Sojourner Truth's 'Ain't I a Woman?' speech to illustrate that the famous quote was not originally spoken by her.
Emotions are often blamed for poor decision-making, but combining them with rational analysis can improve decisions, especially when evaluating information.
De Bono contrasts following a defined line of reasoning with searching for a new way to frame a problem. Lateral thinking aims to improve the chance of insight without guaranteeing one; a formal method’s guarantees depend on the problem meeting its conditions.
A decision-making heuristic that recommends removing unnatural interventions rather than adding them, particularly in medicine, and warns against confusing absence of evidence with evidence of absence.
Give an abstract concept a visual image or metaphor to make it easier to understand and remember.
If a solution to a problem is not working and cannot be refined, have the courage to abandon it and start the problem-solving process from scratch. This heuristic helps avoid sunk cost fallacy by recognizing when to pivot and restart.
Demonstrating willingness to act on one's beliefs, especially through costly or risky actions, builds credibility and respect. It contrasts with cheap signaling, which involves low-cost expressions that lack commitment.
Ask what action you can take toward a goal, then use the answer to form a practical plan.
A heuristic that encourages evaluating information by asking three questions: who is the source, how do they know the claim, and what are they trying to sell (including ideas or products).
Taleb distrusts advice that offers only actions to take and ignores mistakes to avoid. His heuristic directs attention to preventing ruin and removing harmful practices, especially where success may reflect luck.
When evaluating a web claim, ask what makes it compelling and which new information would change your assessment. A checklist of surface credibility signals can miss the context that matters most, such as an ordinary explanation for a seemingly extraordinary photo.
A gut feeling can draw on experience you cannot immediately explain. It can be useful when you know the setting well, but it can also reflect bias or a poor comparison. Treat intuition as a reason to investigate, and check it against evidence before making a major commitment.
When you encounter an unfamiliar or suspicious website, take a brief detour to Wikipedia to check the organization’s background before investing time in its claims.
A heuristic for problem-solving: identify whether the problem is obvious or fuzzy, then narrow it down and write it down.
In complex domains, small actions can lead to significant changes but outcomes are unpredictable. Therefore, develop a portfolio of safe-to-fail experiments to probe the system and shape emergent improvements rather than relying on false predictions.
A heuristic that involves starting at the solution or desired outcome and working backwards to find a path, often making difficult problems easier by changing the direction of thought.
A heuristic for aligning communication between hierarchical levels by translating formal organizational language into terms meaningful to the team, and managing expectations through under-promising and over-delivering.
A visualization exercise: describe a desired life in the present tense, then read the description aloud regularly. The source prescribes 21 days, but does not establish a fixed timetable for changing the brain.
Visualize an abstract idea by representing three dimensions on separate axes. For example, foreign-policy topics can serve as dimensions in a mental model.
Erikson recommends an open, friendly style when interacting with people he describes as Yellow. Personal stories and interest in the other person are central to his rapport-building advice.
Behavioral activation (BA) involves planning and trying activities even when motivation is low. Observing what happens can help you evaluate predictions about the activity and decide what to try next.
Repeatedly auditing the same areas can create a comfort zone where organizations become complacent and fail to improve. This heuristic warns against routine audits that reinforce the status quo rather than driving meaningful change.