Premortem
A premortem asks you to imagine that a plan has failed and identify plausible reasons. Use those reasons to check assumptions and address risks before committing to the plan.
THE IDEA
Premortem
A premortem starts with an imagined failure. Picture a future point at which your plan or project has gone badly, then write down what could have caused it. Working backward can help you notice vulnerabilities that are easy to miss while concentrating on success.
For a team, ask people to write their reasons independently before discussing them. Compare the explanations and decide what to change now: test an assumption, prepare an alternative, or watch for an early sign of trouble. The exercise is useful when it leads to a concrete decision about preparation.
The related Stoic practice of premeditatio malorum (“the premeditation of evils”), associated with Seneca, involves considering adversity in advance. A project premortem gives that anticipation a specific task: explain an assumed failure of the plan.
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) examines possible failures step by step. In the simplified version described here, a team identifies failure modes and rates their likelihood (1–10) and severity (1–10). Multiplying the scores helps the team discuss which risks need attention first.
The 100,000 Homes Campaign used this approach to identify a possible legal obstacle: fair-housing requirements might conflict with prioritising homeless individuals. The campaign consulted a legal expert, who confirmed that its approach complied. It went on to place 20,000 people in homes by mid‑2012.
A preparade asks the corresponding question about success. Imagine that the plan has worked unusually well. What would you need in place to handle demand or make use of the opportunity? The account places Softsoap’s preparations in 1977: executives arranged options with the two suppliers of the bottle pumps, reserving supply for 18–24 months. The aim was to meet demand and delay competitors.
A safety factor provides another way to allow for uncertainty. The account gives factors of 6 for a ladder and 11 for an elevator cable, along with software schedule buffers of 30–50%. These illustrate allowing extra capacity or time; the appropriate margin depends on the application.
After any of these exercises, record the actions, who will take them, and when you will review the remaining risks.
When to use it
Planning a major business initiative to anticipate and mitigate risks.
Designing a new product launch to ensure supply chain readiness for unexpected demand.
Making personal career decisions by considering both worst-case and best-case scenarios.
Managing engineering projects by adding safety factors to calculations and schedules.
Before a product launch, ask team members to write independent accounts of how it might fail, then compare the risks they identified.
Before a major move or career change, imagine that the plan has failed and identify plausible reasons to investigate.
In project management, use a premortem during the planning phase to surface assumptions and blind spots.
Before a shared commitment, discuss how it might go wrong and agree on ways to handle likely difficulties.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
100,000 Homes Campaign FMEA
In 2010, the 100,000 Homes Campaign conducted an FMEA that identified a potential legal obstacle: housing providers might refuse to prioritize homeless individuals due to fair-housing laws. After scoring the risk as high, they consulted a legal expert, who confirmed their approach was lawful. This allowed the campaign to proceed without legal distractions and eventually house 20,000 people.
Softsoap Preparade
Minnetonka’s executives anticipated strong demand for Softsoap and arranged options with the two suppliers of plastic pumps for 18–24 months. Reserving supply was intended to help them meet demand while delaying competitors.
Engineering Safety Factor
In the ladder illustration, a 400-pound load is multiplied to 2,400 pounds using a safety factor of 6. The account also mentions factors of 11 for elevator cables and 4 for space-shuttle ground equipment. These figures explain the margin concept; appropriate values depend on the equipment and its conditions of use.
Business Project Premortem
A team is about to launch a new product. Before launch, they conduct a premortem: they imagine it's six months later and the product has failed. Each member writes down possible reasons for failure. They identify that a key supplier might not deliver on time and that a competitor might release a similar product first. With this foresight, they secure a backup supplier and accelerate their marketing timeline.
Personal Finance Premortem
An individual is considering quitting their job to start a business. They perform a premortem by imagining themselves a year from now, having failed and returned to the job market with depleted savings. They anticipate reasons: insufficient savings buffer, lack of market research, poor budgeting. They then decide to build a larger emergency fund and conduct thorough market validation before leaving their current role.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a current project: what potential failures have you overlooked? How can you systematically identify them using a premortem or FMEA?
Imagine your project is a huge success a year from now. What preparations would you need to make today to handle that success?
Where in your plans could you build in a margin of error to account for your own overconfidence?
Think of a major goal you're currently pursuing. Imagine it has failed. What are the most likely reasons for that failure?
In what areas of your life are you currently relying on hope rather than proactive preparation?
Which worries about an upcoming event point to a practical step you could take?
Often confused with
References
- Moral Letters to Lucilius — Seneca the Younger
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Clear Thinking Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results (Shane Parrish)
- Decisive How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work (Chip Heath)