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Cognitive Biases

Golden Mediocrity

The concept of 'Golden Mediocrity' refers to the historical ideal of the average or mean, popularized by statistician Adolphe Quételet, who defined a 'normal man' (l'homme moyen) through statistical averages and treated deviations as abnormal. This notion influenced socialist thinking and has been critiqued for ignoring individual specialization and variability.

THE IDEA

Golden Mediocrity

Quételet provided a much needed product for the ideological appetites of his day. As he lived between 1796 and 1874, so consider the roster of his contemporaries: Saint-Simon (1760–1825), Pierre-Joseph Proudhon (1809–1865), and Karl Marx (1818–1883), each the source of a different version of socialism. Everyone in this post-Enlightenment moment was longing for the aurea mediocritas, the golden mean: in wealth, height, weight, and so on. This longing contains some element of wishful thinking mixed with a great deal of harmony and … Platonicity.

I always remember my father’s injunction that in medio stat virtus, “virtue lies in moderation.” Well, for a long time that was the ideal; mediocrity, in that sense, was even deemed golden. All-embracing mediocrity.

But Quételet took the idea to a different level. Collecting statistics, he started creating standards of “means.” Chest size, height, the weight of babies at birth, very little escaped his standards. Deviations from the norm, he found, became exponentially more rare as the magnitude of the deviation increased. Then, having conceived of this idea of the physical characteristics of l’homme moyen, Monsieur Quételet switched to social matters. L’homme moyen had his habits, his consumption, his methods.

Through his construct of l’homme moyen physique and l’homme moyen moral, the physically and morally average man, Quételet created a range of deviance from the average that positions all people either to the left or right of center and, truly, punishes those who find themselves occupying the extreme left or right of the statistical bell curve. They became abnormal. How this inspired Marx, who cites Quételet regarding this concept of an average or normal man, is obvious: “Societal deviations in terms of the distribution of wealth for example, must be minimized,” he wrote in Das Kapital.

One has to give some credit to the scientific establishment of Quételet’s day. They did not buy his arguments at once. The philosopher/mathematician/economist Augustin Cournot, for starters, did not believe that one could establish a standard human on purely quantitative grounds. Such a standard would be dependent on the attribute under consideration. A measurement in one province may differ from that in another province. Which one should be the standard? L’homme moyen would be a monster, said Cournot. I will explain his point as follows.

Assuming there is something desirable in being an average man, he must have an unspecified specialty in which he would be more gifted than other people—he cannot be average in everything. A pianist would be better on average at playing the piano, but worse than the norm at, say, horseback riding. A draftsman would have better drafting skills, and so on. The notion of a man deemed average is different from that of a man who is average in everything he does. In fact, an exactly average human would have to be half male and half female. Quételet completely missed that point.

When to use it

  • Evaluating educational curricula based on average student performance, potentially overlooking gifted or struggling students.

  • Using average salary data to set 'fair' wages, which may ignore regional or skill-level differences.

  • Designing products for the 'average' user, which can alienate users with extreme preferences or physical characteristics.

  • Judging artistic or athletic ability by deviation from norms, leading to unfair labeling of outliers as abnormal.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

The Pianist and the Draftsman

Taleb uses the pianist and draftsman to distinguish an average measured across a population from a person who matches every average. Someone skilled at piano need not have average skills in other activities, nor must that person be poor at riding. A population average does not describe every individual.

02

Quetelet's Physical Measurements

Quetelet collected data on chest size, height, and birth weight, defining the 'average man' physically. Deviations from these averages were considered abnormal, leading to the stigmatization of those outside the norm.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. How does the concept of the 'average man' influence modern social policies, such as education or healthcare standards?

  2. Can you identify a situation where striving for mediocrity might be harmful to innovation or personal growth?

  3. In what ways does statistical normality affect our perception of deviance, and how might this lead to bias?

Connected ideas

Another lens can bring the same problem into focus.

Often confused with

References

  1. Das Kapital — Karl Marx (1867)

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable With a new section On Robustness and Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
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