The Complex
Taleb distinguishes complex systems, whose interdependencies can produce cascading effects, from complicated systems with simpler responses. The distinction encourages attention to interactions that make isolated cause-and-effect explanations unreliable.
THE IDEA
The Complex
This organic-mechanical dichotomy is a good starter distinction to build intuitions about the difference between two kinds of phenomena, but we can do better. Many things such as society, economic activities and markets, and cultural behavior are apparently man-made but grow on their own to reach some kind of self-organization. They may not be strictly biological, but they resemble the biological in that, in a way, they multiply and replicate—think of rumors, ideas, technologies, and businesses. They are closer to the cat than to the washing machine but tend to be mistaken for washing machines. Accordingly we can generalize our distinction beyond the biological-nonbiological. More effective is the distinction between noncomplex and complex systems.
Artificial, man-made mechanical and engineering contraptions with simple responses are complicated, but not “complex,” as they don’t have interdependencies. You push a button, say, a light switch, and get an exact response, with no possible ambiguity in the consequences, even in Russia. But with complex systems, interdependencies are severe. You need to think in terms of ecology: if you remove a specific animal you disrupt a food chain: its predators will starve and its prey will grow unchecked, causing complications and series of cascading side effects. Lions are exterminated by the Canaanites, Phoenicians, Romans, and later inhabitants of Mount Lebanon, leading to the proliferation of goats who crave tree roots, contributing to the deforestation of mountain areas, consequences that were hard to see ahead of time. Likewise, if you shut down a bank in New York, it will cause ripple effects from Iceland to Mongolia.
In the complex world, the notion of “cause” itself is suspect; it is either nearly impossible to detect or not really defined—another reason to ignore newspapers, with their constant supply of causes for things.
When to use it
Policy decisions in ecology or economics where unintended cascading effects are likely.
Designing resilient supply chains by understanding interdependencies.
Evaluating the true impact of removing a key player in a social network.
Strategic planning in business to avoid oversimplifying market dynamics.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Lion Extermination and Deforestation
Taleb uses the removal of lions from Mount Lebanon as an example of a cascade: fewer predators, more goats, and damage to vegetation. The account illustrates his argument about consequences extending beyond the component initially removed.
Bank Shutdown in New York
Shutting down a bank in New York can cause ripple effects that spread from Iceland to Mongolia, demonstrating how financial systems are complex and interconnected.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Can you think of a system in your daily life that appears simple but has hidden interdependencies?
Why is it difficult to predict the consequences of removing a component from a complex system?
How would you investigate a causal claim when several parts of a system interact?
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Antifragile (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)