Internalizing Evidence
Internalizing evidence means using carefully evaluated information to revise a belief, while checking both intuition and data analysis for error. It combines awareness of cognitive bias with an understanding of what statistical inference can and cannot establish.
THE IDEA
Internalizing Evidence
Intuition comes from within a decision-maker; data come from outside. Both influence judgment once the person interprets them. Evidence-based thinking adds two checks: (1) awareness of how cognitive biases can distort intuition, discussed in Chapter 2, and (2) an intuitive grasp of the logic and limits of statistical inference. The aim is to examine subjective impulses and understand analytical results well enough to use them.
To internalize evidence is to check a belief against carefully evaluated facts and revise it when appropriate. This differs from trying to memorize every piece of information, a distinction addressed in Chapter 1. A decision-maker needs to resist premature conclusions,[9] consider the available indicators, and ask how they bear on the decision.
When to use it
A business leader evaluating market trends: Instead of relying on anecdotal evidence, systematically collect and analyze data while being aware of confirmation bias.
A scientist interpreting experimental results: Internalize evidence by considering both the statistical significance and potential biases in data collection.
A job candidate assessing career options: Gather objective salary and growth data, but also factor in personal values and intuition after fact-checking.
Before a purchase, compare reviews and specifications with your own preferences, checking how an initial price or favorable review may be influencing you.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Product Manager Using Analytics
A product manager believes users prefer a new feature based on anecdotal feedback, but user analytics show low adoption. By internalizing the data, they reevaluate their intuition and run a controlled experiment before committing resources.
Doctor Challenging Diagnostic Gut Feeling
A doctor has a strong hunch that a patient has a rare disease, but lab results and evidence-based guidelines indicate a more common condition. Internalizing the evidence leads them to follow the data while remaining alert to potential biases.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Can you recall a recent decision where you relied on gut feeling rather than available data? How might internalizing evidence have changed the outcome?
In what situations do you find it hardest to resist the temptation of a quick conclusion? How can you apply the principle of internalizing evidence there?
How does awareness of cognitive bias help in the process of internalizing evidence?
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Evidence-Based Decision-Making How to Leverage Available Data and Avoid Cognitive Biases (Andrew D. Banasiewicz)