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Decision Frameworks

Information Management and Decision-Making Framework

Drawing lessons from aviation, this framework emphasizes the need to provide decision-makers with the right amount of timely data while avoiding overload. It calls for filtering information, tracking KPIs and KRIs, setting milestones, avoiding 'hockey stick' forecasts, and corroborating data through multiple sources.

THE IDEA

Information Management and Decision-Making Framework

This framework, inspired by aviation industry practices, underscores the critical balance between providing decision-makers with sufficient, timely data and preventing information overload. Key principles include:

  • Data Relevance and Volume: Ensure decision-makers receive the right amount of information; too much can lead to overload and poor decisions.
  • KPIs and KRIs: Develop a range of key performance indicators (KPIs) and key risk indicators (KRIs) that focus on what truly matters to the organization.
  • Information Filtering: Establish clear processes for filtering information that reaches senior management, the board, and external stakeholders.
  • Fast-Tracking Issues: Implement mechanisms to quickly escalate potentially critical issues to senior managers and the board, preventing delays or loss.
  • Milestone Setting and Measurement: Design milestones with clear metrics to track achievement, and regularly assess progress at both design and operational levels.
  • Avoiding 'Hockey Stick' Forecasts: Be wary of optimistic projections that smooth over shortfalls; monitor metrics and traffic lights that might allow problems to accumulate.
  • Cost-Benefit Tracking: Match costs to specific project deliverables and benefits achieved, rather than relying solely on monthly budget comparisons.
  • Corroborating Information: Use multiple sources—incidents, near misses, skip-level meetings, and independent assurances—to validate data and uncover hidden issues.

When to use it

  • Designing a management dashboard for a fast-growing startup to balance growth metrics with risk indicators.

  • Auditing the information flow in a manufacturing firm to ensure safety issues are escalated without delay.

  • Setting milestones for a multi-year infrastructure project and tracking progress against deliverables rather than time alone.

  • Improving board reporting by filtering financial and operational data to focus on strategic exceptions.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

Filtering Information for a CEO

An aviation company implements a dashboard that highlights only the top five safety metrics (e.g., near-miss frequency, maintenance backlog) and automatically flags any metric exceeding a threshold. This prevents the CEO from being overwhelmed by dozens of reports while ensuring immediate attention to critical issues.

02

Avoiding Hockey Stick Forecasts in Project Management

A software development team tracks actual hours spent per sprint against planned hours. They notice that early sprints are over budget but project forecasts still show on-time completion. By enforcing a monthly review of cumulative variance, they catch the 'hockey stick' forecast early and adjust resources.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. Think of a recent decision you made at work. What information did you receive, and was there any that you now realize was missing or irrelevant?

  2. Review your organization’s KPIs. Do they truly reflect strategic priorities, or are they just easy to measure?

  3. Identify one 'hockey stick' forecast in your current projects. What early warning signs could have been introduced to prevent it?

Often confused with

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Source texts

  • Beyond the Five Whys Root Cause Analysis and Systems Thinking (James C. Paterson)
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