Convexity Effects and Random Nutrition
Taleb proposes that variation in the timing and composition of food intake may matter as much as average intake. He uses Jensen’s inequality to frame the hypothesis: variation can help where the relevant response is convex. Establishing that response in nutrition requires evidence; nonlinearity alone does not show that random eating patterns are beneficial.
THE IDEA
A practical consequence of Jensen’s inequality is that the shape of a response matters: irregularity has its benefits in some areas; regularity has its detriments. Where Jensen’s inequality applies, irregularity might be medicine.
Perhaps what we mostly need to remove is a few meals at random, or at least avoid steadiness in food consumption. The error of missing nonlinearities is found in two places, in the mixture and in the frequency of food intake.
The problem with the mixture is as follows. We humans are said to be omnivorous, compared to more specialized mammals, such as cows and elephants (who eat salads) and lions (who eat prey, generally salad-eating prey). But such ability to be omnivorous had to come in response to more variegated environments with unplanned, haphazard, and, what is key, serial availability of sources—specialization is the response to a very stable habitat free of abrupt changes, redundancy of pathways the response to a more variegated one. Diversification of function had to come in response to variety. And a variety of a certain structure.
Note a subtlety in the way we are built: the cow and other herbivores are subjected to much less randomness than the lion in their food intake; they eat steadily but need to work extremely hard in order to metabolize all these nutrients, spending several hours a day just eating. Not to count the boredom of standing there eating salads. The lion, on the other hand, needs to rely on more luck; it succeeds in a small percentage of the kills, less than 20 percent, but when it eats, it gets in a quick and easy way all these nutrients produced thanks to very hard and boring work by the prey. So take the following principles derived from the random structure of the environment: when we are herbivores, we eat steadily; but when we are predators we eat more randomly. Hence our proteins need to be consumed randomly for statistical reasons.
So if you agree that we need “balanced” nutrition of a certain combination, it is wrong to immediately assume that we need such balance at every meal rather than serially so. Assuming that we need on average certain quantities of the various nutrients that have been identified, say a certain quantity of carbohydrates, proteins, and fats.[5] There is a big difference between getting them together, at every meal, with the classical steak, salad, followed by fresh fruits, or having them separately, serially.
Why? Because deprivation is a stressor—and we know what stressors do when allowed adequate recovery. Convexity effects at work here again: getting three times the daily dose of protein in one day and nothing the next two is certainly not biologically equivalent to “steady” moderate consumption if our metabolic reactions are nonlinear. It should have some benefits—at least this is how we are designed to be.
I speculate; in fact I more than speculate: I am convinced (an inevitable result of nonlinearity) that we are antifragile to randomness in food delivery and composition—at least over a certain range, or number of days.
And one blatant denial of convexity bias is the theory about the benefits of the so-called Cretan (or Mediterranean) diet that triggered a change in the eating habits of the U.S. enlightened class, away from steak and potatoes in favor of grilled fish with salad and feta cheese. It happened as follows. Someone looked at the longevity of Cretans, cataloged what they ate, then inferred—naively—that they lived longer because of the types of food they consumed. It could be true, but the second-order effect (the variations in intake) could be dominant, something that went unnoticed by mechanistic researchers. Indeed, it took a while to notice the following: the Greek Orthodox church has, depending on the severity of the local culture, almost two hundred days of fasting per year; and these are harrowing fasts.
Yes, harrowing fasts, as I am feeling it right now. For I am writing these lines during Orthodox Lent, a forty-day period in which almost no animal product can be consumed, no sweets, and, for some sticklers, no olive oil. As there are several gradations, I try to stick to a semistrict level, and life is not very easy, as is meant to be. I just spent a long weekend in Amioun, my ancestral village in Northern Lebanon, in the Greek Orthodox area called the Koura valley. There traditional “ruse” foods are perfected, with great imagination: Levantine kibbeh made with herbs and beans in place of meat, meatballs made of matzoh-style small brown balls in a lentil soup. Remarkably, while fish is banned, most days, shellfish is allowed, probably as it was not considered a luxury item. The compensation for the absence of some nutrients from my daily diet will take place in lumps. I will make up my deprivation of what researchers (for now) call protein with fish on days when it is allowed, and of course I will ravenously eat lamb on Easter Day, then consume disproportionally high quantities of fatty red meat for a while thereafter. I dream of the red steak served in Fat Tony–patronized restaurants in unapologetically monstrous portions.
And there is this antifragility to the stressor of the fast, as it makes the wanted food taste better and can produce euphoria in one’s system. Breaking a fast feels like the exact opposite of a hangover.[6]
When to use it
Formulating a research question about whether meal timing affects outcomes when average nutrient intake is held comparable.
Evaluating diet studies by considering not just the average nutrient intake but also the variability in consumption over time.
Explaining why equal average nutrient intake need not imply equal biological effects, without assuming which eating pattern is better.
Evaluating whether an evolutionary analogy generates a testable nutritional hypothesis or merely suggests one.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Herbivore vs. Predator Eating Patterns
Taleb contrasts cows’ steady feeding with lions’ irregular hunting, citing a hunting success rate below 20%. He uses the comparison to propose that variation in human protein intake might matter. Hunting success is not itself a measure of feeding frequency, and the analogy does not establish a benefit for humans.
Greek Orthodox Fasting and the Cretan Diet
Taleb notes that some Greek Orthodox practices involve nearly 200 fasting days per year, with restrictions on particular foods. He proposes that variation in intake could help explain the longevity associated with the Cretan diet. The longevity observation alone cannot separate the effects of food types, fasting practices, and other factors.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
What evidence would be needed to compare irregular meal patterns with regular meals, rather than infer a health benefit from nonlinearity alone?
In another area where timing varies, how would you determine whether the response is convex or concave over the relevant range?
How could a study distinguish the effects of fasting practices from the effects of food types in a Mediterranean diet?
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Antifragile (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)