You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know
A mental model reminding us that unknown unknowns—critical factors we are unaware of—can derail plans. By asking probing questions and seeking what we might have missed, we reduce blind spots and improve contingency planning.
THE IDEA
Logistics is not just about executing a set of tasks; it’s about thinking through an array of good and bad scenarios that could occur and developing multiple contingency plans to cover them. Ask questions – lots of questions – to help you figure out what, in a given circumstance, you may be missing or what could happen.
I often ask colleagues, clients, and interviewees, “What should I have asked you that I may not have?” or “What do I need to know that we haven’t covered?” Keep front and center the adage “You don’t know what you don’t know.” It helps to open your mind to the possibility that you have overlooked something critical.
In event planning, overlooked details can affect the event’s purpose as well as its budget. Ask others to identify gaps, then assess which ones need a contingency plan.
When to use it
Risk assessment in logistics and supply chain management
Strategic planning for business launches or events
Pre-mortem exercises in project management
Diagnosing root causes in complex problem-solving
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Event Planning
An event planner asks their team, “What could go wrong that we haven’t discussed?” By probing for unknown unknowns, they discover a potential vendor strike that wasn’t on anyone’s radar and arrange a backup caterer.
Software Project
A project manager regularly asks stakeholders, “What should I have asked you about the requirements that I didn’t?” This uncovers a critical regulatory compliance issue that would have caused a late-stage redesign.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
What are one or two critical questions you could ask today that might reveal a blind spot in your current project?
Think of a recent decision that went wrong. What unknown factor did you miss, and how could you have uncovered it earlier?
How can you build a habit of regularly asking colleagues, clients, or yourself, “What am I not seeing?”
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Thinking in Systems and Mental Models Think Like a Super Thinker (Dawson, Marcus P)