Why Do We Make Poor Choices?
Poor choices often stem from lack of information, using inappropriate mental models, failing to learn from mistakes, and seeking external validation. Expanding one's worldview and adopting a latticework of mental models can improve decision-making.
THE IDEA
21. Why do we make poor choices?
A poor decision can have several causes. We may lack information, rely on an unsuitable model, repeat a mistake without examining it, or care more about how a choice looks than what it achieves. Fatigue, distraction, time pressure, and unhelpful group dynamics can make each problem harder to notice.
Start with the information. Is it accurate and relevant? What is missing? Bad information can mislead us, but even good information will not remove every uncertainty. A useful model helps organise the evidence; it does not certify that the evidence is true.
Next, consider whether the model fits the problem. A rule that works in a familiar setting may fail elsewhere. Recognising the limits of your knowledge matters as much as having a large collection of ideas. If the task requires expertise you lack, another perspective or specialist help may be more useful than another analogy.
Learning from a mistake requires more than regretting the result. Ask which assumption, action, or omission contributed to it, and what you could do differently. An unlucky outcome does not necessarily mean the decision was poor, just as a lucky outcome does not prove it was sound.
Social motives matter too. Wanting approval or avoiding embarrassment can make a weak option seem attractive. Ask whether you would make the same choice if you did not have to defend your status or appearance.
Think of mental models as tools. A plumber without the right tool has a harder job; a decision-maker using the wrong model can overlook important features of a problem. Learning more models broadens the available approaches, but you also need practice in choosing and checking them.
A latticework connects those models. Looking at a problem from several relevant perspectives can expose an assumption that any single view leaves hidden. The aim is a better account of the situation, followed by a decision you can assess and learn from.
When to use it
Evaluating the credibility of news or information to avoid being misled by false news.
Choosing the right approach for a complex problem at work by selecting an appropriate mental model (e.g., first principles thinking vs. analogy).
Learning from past failures by reflecting on the mistakes and adjusting your mental models accordingly.
Recognizing when group dynamics or a self-proclaimed expert are influencing your decisions negatively, and seeking diverse perspectives.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Plumber Without Tools
A plumber arrives at a job but lacks the necessary tools to fix pipes. Without the right tools, the job becomes much harder or impossible. Similarly, without the appropriate mental models, decision-making becomes difficult and often leads to poor outcomes.
Repeated Mistakes
A person keeps making the same poor financial decisions—e.g., overspending on credit cards—because they never analyze why they overspend. They fail to learn from past mistakes and thus repeat the behavior, stuck in a cycle of poor choices.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent poor decision you made. Was it due to lack of information, using a wrong mental model, or seeking validation? How could you have approached it differently?
What mental models do you currently use in your daily life? Are they appropriate for the situations you face?
How does your desire to be perceived by others influence your choices? Can you identify a time when this led to a poor outcome?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Thinking in Systems and Mental Models Think Like a Super Thinker (Dawson, Marcus P)