Where the Relevant Is the Sensational
Our intuitions are biased towards linear causality and sensational information, making it difficult to handle nonlinear, delayed feedback. This mismatch can lead to demoralization when progress is not immediately visible.
THE IDEA
Where the Relevant Is the Sensational
Our intuitions are not cut out for nonlinearities. Consider our life in a primitive environment where process and result are closely connected. You are thirsty; drinking brings you adequate satisfaction. Or even in a not-so-primitive environment, when you engage in building, say, a bridge or a stone house, more work will lead to more apparent results, so your mood is propped up by visible continuous feedback.
In a primitive environment, the relevant is the sensational. This applies to our knowledge. When we try to collect information about the world around us, we tend to be guided by our biology, and our attention flows effortlessly toward the sensational—not the relevant so much as the sensational. Somehow the guidance system has gone wrong in the process of our coevolution with our habitat—it was transplanted into a world in which the relevant is often boring, nonsensational.
Furthermore, we think that if, say, two variables are causally linked, then a steady input in one variable should always yield a result in the other one. Our emotional apparatus is designed for linear causality. For instance, if you study every day, you expect to learn something in proportion to your studies. If you feel that you are not going anywhere, your emotions will cause you to become demoralized. But modern reality rarely gives us the privilege of a satisfying, linear, positive progression: you may think about a problem for a year and learn nothing; then, unless you are disheartened by the emptiness of the results and give up, something will come to you in a flash.
Researchers spent some time dealing with this notion of gratification; neurology has been enlightening us about the tension between the notions of immediate rewards and delayed ones. Would you like a massage today, or two next week? Well, the news is that the logical part of our mind, that “higher” one, which distinguishes us from animals, can override our animal instinct, which asks for immediate rewards. So we are a little better than animals, after all—but perhaps not by much. And not all of the time.
When to use it
Learning a complex skill that involves plateaus and sudden breakthroughs.
Starting a new venture where results are delayed and not immediately visible.
Pursuing long-term health goals like weight loss or muscle gain where daily progress is not linear.
Innovation and problem-solving where solutions emerge after periods of incubation.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Studying and Learning
If you study every day, you expect to learn something in proportion to your studies. If you feel that you are not going anywhere, your emotions will cause you to become demoralized. But you may think about a problem for a year and learn nothing; then, unless you are disheartened and give up, something will come to you in a flash.
Immediate vs Delayed Rewards
Would you like a massage today, or two next week? The logical part of our mind can override the animal instinct for immediate rewards, but not always successfully.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a situation where you expected linear progress but experienced stagnation. How might a nonlinear understanding change your emotional response?
Identify an area in your life where you are drawn to sensational information over relevant but boring information. How can you shift your attention?
How can you create intermediate feedback loops to maintain motivation when working on long, nonlinear projects?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable With a new section On Robustness and Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)