When It Rains, It Pours
Taleb describes success as uneven and self-reinforcing, arguing that a few enthusiastic advocates may matter more than many indifferent supporters. His account also expresses discomfort with both extremes of success and failure.
THE IDEA
As I am writing these lines, I am suddenly realizing that the world's bipolarity is hitting me very hard. Either one succeeds wildly, by attracting all the cash, or fails to draw a single penny. Likewise with books. Either everyone wants to publish it, or nobody is interested in returning telephone calls (in the latter case my discipline is to delete the name from my address book). I am also realizing the nonlinear effect behind success in anything: It is better to have a handful of enthusiastic advocates than hordes of people who appreciate your work—better to be loved by a dozen than liked by the hundreds. This applies to the sales of books, the spread of ideas, and success in general and runs counter to conventional logic. The information age is worsening this effect. This is making me, with my profound and antiquated Mediterranean sense of metron (measure), extremely uncomfortable, even queasy. Too much success is the enemy (think of the punishment meted out on the rich and famous); too much failure is demoralizing. I would like the option of having neither.
When to use it
Business: Prioritize customer delight over widespread satisfaction to create loyal brand advocates.
Marketing: working with early supporters who are willing to recommend the product.
Career: Cultivate deep relationships with a few key mentors or collaborators rather than a wide network of acquaintances.
Social movements: Mobilize a dedicated core to drive change instead of seeking broad but shallow support.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Book Publishing
Taleb describes publishers either competing for a manuscript or failing to return calls. He uses that contrast to express his experience of uneven interest, rather than establish that publishing has no intermediate outcomes.
Idea Spread
A small group of passionate supporters can drive adoption of an idea far more effectively than a large group of lukewarm appreciators.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
In what areas of your life have you observed a winner-take-all dynamic?
How can you focus on converting casual supporters into enthusiastic advocates?
Why might having too many 'likes' be less valuable than a few devoted followers?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Fooled by Randomness The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)