War, Prison, or Both
Taleb contrasts the freedoms and instability of Lebanon with repression under Syria’s Baath regime. An Aleppine merchant’s preference for war over political and economic confinement illustrates the value he places on freedom; the passage also describes the danger of a state too weak to restrain armed factions.
THE IDEA
War, Prison, or Both
But while Lebanon had all the right qualities, the state was too loose, and by allowing the various Palestinian factions and the Christian militias to own weapons, it caused an arms race between the communities while placidly watching the entire buildup. There was also an imbalance between communities, with the Christians trying to impose their identity on the place. Disorganized is invigorating; but the Lebanese state was one step too disorganized. It would be like allowing each of the New York mafia bosses to have a larger army than the Joint Chiefs of Staff (just imagine John Gotti with missiles). So in 1975 a raging civil war started in Lebanon.
A sentence that still shocks me when I think about it was voiced by one of my grandfather’s friends, a wealthy Aleppine merchant who fled the Baath regime. When my grandfather asked his friend during the Lebanese war why he did not go back to Aleppo, his answer was categorical: “We people of Aleppo prefer war to prison.” I thought that he meant that they were going to put him in jail, but then I realized that by “prison” he meant the loss of political and economic freedoms.
Economic life, too, seems to prefer war to prison. Lebanon and Northern Syria had very similar wealth per individual (what economists call Gross Domestic Product) about a century ago—and had identical cultures, language, ethnicities, food, and even jokes. Everything was the same except for the rule of the “modernizing” Baath Party in Syria compared to the totally benign state in Lebanon. In spite of a civil war that decimated the population, causing an acute brain drain and setting wealth back by several decades, in addition to every possible form of chaos that rocked the place, at the time of this account, Lebanon had a considerably higher standard of living—between three and six times the wealth of Syria.
Nor did the point escape Machiavelli. Jean-Jacques Rousseau wrote, citing him: “It seemed, wrote Machiavelli, that in the midst of murders and civil wars, our republic became stronger [and] its citizens infused with virtues.… A little bit of agitation gives resources to souls and what makes the species prosper isn’t peace, but freedom.”
When to use it
Evaluating the trade-offs between civil liberties and national security in political debates.
Understanding why some regions with low-level conflict may still resist external intervention or regime change.
Analyzing the long-term economic and social consequences of authoritarian rule versus chaotic governance.
Applying the concept to decisions in organizational management, where too much freedom or too much control can backfire.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Lebanon vs Syria
Taleb describes Lebanon and Northern Syria as having similar wealth per person and closely related cultures a century before his account. He reports that, despite Lebanon’s civil war, its wealth was three to six times Syria’s at the time he wrote. He uses the comparison to argue for freedom over repression; the comparison alone does not isolate the causes of their economic differences.
The Aleppine Merchant
A wealthy Aleppine merchant who fled the Baath regime was asked why he didn't return to Aleppo during the Lebanese war. He replied, 'We people of Aleppo prefer war to prison,' meaning loss of political and economic freedoms under the Baath party.
Machiavelli on Freedom and Civil War
Jean-Jacques Rousseau quotes Machiavelli: 'It seemed…that in the midst of murders and civil wars, our republic became stronger [and] its citizens infused with virtues… A little bit of agitation gives resources to souls and what makes the species prosper isn’t peace, but freedom.'
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
In what situations might people choose conflict over oppressive peace? Consider historical and modern examples.
How does the 'war vs prison' trade-off inform our understanding of state capacity and the balance between freedom and order?
Can a state be 'too loose' and still avoid civil war? What conditions determine the tipping point?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Antifragile (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)