Unrealistic Optimism (Optimistic Bias)
People tend to underestimate their personal risk of experiencing negative events, and this optimistic bias is resistant to disconfirming information. Making high-risk individuals salient can paradoxically increase optimism by reinforcing the belief that one is not like them.
THE IDEA
Discussion
As in Studies 1 and 2, optimistic beliefs about personal health risks proved resistant to manipulation. Participants who formed an image of a very high-risk individual became even more optimistic. However, participants appeared to resist using the low-risk image as a comparison target. That a mental image of a high-risk individual can increase unrealistic optimism indirectly supports the notion that people construct negative stereotypes (e.g., Weinstein, 1980) or prototypes (e.g., Wood, 1989) of the type of person who experiences a health problem. If we assume that the high-risk target was seen as more the norm than the exception, it follows that making this target salient should have a greater effect on risk estimates than the low-risk target.
When to use it
Designing health risk communications to counteract optimism bias by tailoring messages to individual risk profiles.
Understanding why people avoid health screenings or ignore warning signs (e.g., colonoscopy, mammogram).
In advertising: comparing a risky behavior to an extreme example can backfire, leading to increased optimism in the target audience.
In personal decision-making: recognizing when you are using a high-risk prototype to downplay your own risk.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Smoking and Lung Cancer
A smoker sees a news story about a heavy smoker who developed lung cancer. Instead of feeling at risk, the smoker thinks, "I don't smoke as much as that person," and feels even more optimistic about their own health.
Heart Disease Prevention
A person with a family history of heart disease meets someone who had a heart attack at a young age and lives an even unhealthier lifestyle. They conclude, "I'm not that bad," and reduce their perceived risk despite objective risk factors.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a time you underestimated your risk for a negative event. What made you feel invulnerable?
How might the unrealistic optimism bias affect how people respond to public health campaigns (e.g., anti-smoking ads)?
Why might learning about a high-risk individual make people feel safer rather than more concerned?
Often confused with
References
- Unrealistic optimism about future life events — Weinstein, N. D. (1980)
- The social construction of risk — Wood, J. V. (1989)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)