UFO Belief

UFOs

Oh, if only this one were true! If I were ever to let desire, bias, emotion, and fantasy bully my skepticism into submission, this would probably be the first unproven extraordinary claim I would surrender to. At some point during most of my lectures and interviews, I make the point that it’s okay to hope and dream. There is nothing contradictory or hypocritical about having a wild imagination and being a good skeptic. So long as one knows where knowledge ends and hope begins, there is no problem. I have no problem, for example, admitting that I have both the mind of a UFO skeptic and the heart of a UFO believer. For reasons I will share shortly, I don’t think aliens are routinely buzzing around our planet. However, I freely accept the possibility that they could be. It does not embarrass me to confess that I wish they were. The chance that there could be intelligent life somewhere else in the universe thrills me. Contact with intelligent extraterrestrial beings, or at least discovering that they really are there, would literally be a dream come true for me. But I do my best to think like a good scientist and process claims like a good skeptic should. So before I accept UFO belief—the claim that aliens are already here—it needs to survive a few simple questions. Unfortunately, it can’t. But my enthusiasm for the possibility remains.

Not everyone shares my perspective on this. According to a Gallup poll, nearly a quarter of American adults believe that “extraterrestrial beings have visited Earth at some time in the past.”2 A joint study by the National Council on Science and Technology and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography looked at this belief and concluded that as much as one-third of all American adults think aliens are here right now.3

Because I am interested in space, find science fascinating, and love to wonder about alien life, I follow NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) missions, the efforts of astrobiologists (scientists who work on questions about what extraterrestrials might be like and where they might be if they exist), and the work of SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence). In 2012, after recording a guest segment for SETI’s radio show about the intersection of fictional zombies and real science, I pleaded for a personal tour of the SETI Institute and got it. The Allen Telescope Array is not at the main building in Mountain View, California, of course, and it was a Saturday so the offices were mostly vacant, but for a fan like me that didn’t matter. I was thrilled simply to be around and peek inside the empty offices of Frank Drake (author of the famed Drake equation that calculates an estimate for the number of extraterrestrial civilizations) and Jill Tarter (longtime SETI scientist and inspiration for the character Ellie, played by Jodie Foster in the movie Contact). Wow, I thought to myself, this building is ground zero for the attempt to answer one of the most profound questions ever posed by our species: Are we alone? Let’s just say most six year olds at a Disney theme park show more restraint and dignity than I did that day. My hosts, Seth Shostak and Barbara Vance, were exceedingly gracious and both patiently answered every nerdy question I threw at them.

Near the end of my tour, I noticed an interesting item on a shelf in Shostak’s office. It was a fake alien in a specimen jar. I was happy to see that. It seems like maybe he too has the mind of a skeptic but the heart of a believer. Shostak is the senior astronomer at SETI and author of the excellent book Confessions of an Alien Hunter. Over the years, I’ve attended his lectures, read his books, interviewed him, and been interviewed by him. I am certain he does not share the UFO belief that is so popular with millions of others. He may have dedicated his life to the search for aliens, but he remains a scientist and a skeptic. Shostak knows that since the hard evidence isn’t there, it makes no sense to pretend to know they exist. But he still enjoys the idea of aliens being real and even being here among us already. He’s a sci-fi film fan and not above keeping a rubber alien around for kicks. I have a few aliens in my life, too. One is perched on the dresser in my bedroom right now. The point is, UFO believers should understand that they don’t have to give up the attraction or excitement they may feel about the possibility of extraterrestrial life existing. Keep the enthusiasm, but consider trading in the hollow belief and unfounded certainty for solid science and sensible skepticism.

The key problems with UFO belief are easy to identify. First, of course, is the total absence of good evidence. After decades, some say centuries and even millennia, of claims about aliens flying around in our atmosphere, there is nothing substantial to show for it. No one has produced scientifically confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial visitors. All we have are stories, photos, and videos that prove nothing. Eyewitness accounts are more plentiful than camera shots (Who hasn’t seen an unidentified flying object?) but are even less convincing. This is a very good place to again bring up that old axiom popularized by the late Carl Sagan: “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” Certainly the claim that alien spaceships are soaring close above our heads qualifies as extraordinary. So where’s the extraordinary evidence?

Another problem with UFO belief is that we can’t trust our eyes or our memory. Chapter 2 of Think discusses the limitations of human perception and memory. We don’t really see what we look at. Instead our brain tells us what we see, and it doesn’t give us the complete and accurate picture. And never forget that we don’t really remember things we saw or experienced in perfect replay fashion. Instead, our brain tells us a story about what we saw or what happened, based on incomplete images and bits of information. And, like all stories, memories change and memories aren’t necessarily faithful to the true past. These limitations matter when assessing UFO claims.

How can we trust the eyewitness account of a spaceship sighting when we know eyewitness accounts can’t be trusted? How can we trust someone’s memory of seeing a spaceship when we know that memories can’t be trusted? Once we consider how unreliable our brains can be, it’s plain old common sense to conclude that hard evidence—something more than stories from people—is necessary to make the case for UFOs. We need something tangible, like a piece of an extraterrestrial spaceship that can be analyzed and passed around for our best scientists and engineers to study. Short of that—or an alien pilot, dead or alive—UFO claims are nothing more than high-altitude ghost stories. I certainly wouldn’t discourage anyone from investigating specific claims that seem enticing. But until someone produces evidence, I suggest that our time is better spent doing science or at least supporting the efforts of NASA, astrobiologists, professional and amateur astronomers, and SETI. They channel curiosity and hope into scientific activity. And that’s the way to do it.