Today’s problems come from yesterday’s “solutions.”
Many current problems are actually the result of previous solutions that merely shifted the problem elsewhere or created unintended consequences, often going undetected because the solvers are different from those who inherit the new problem.
THE IDEA
1. Today’s problems come from yesterday’s “solutions.”
Once there was a rug merchant who saw that his most beautiful carpet had a large bump in its center.2 He stepped on the bump to flatten it out—and succeeded. But the bump reappeared in a new spot not far away. He jumped on the bump again, and it disappeared—for a moment, until it emerged once more in a new place. Again and again he jumped, scuffing and mangling the rug in his frustration; until finally he lifted one corner of the carpet and an angry snake slithered out.
Often we are puzzled by the causes of our problems when we merely need to look at our own solutions to other problems in the past. A well-established firm may find that this quarter’s sales are off sharply. Why? Because the highly successful rebate program last quarter led many customers to buy then rather than now. Or a new manager attacks chronically high inventory costs and “solves” the problem—except that the sales force is now spending 20 percent more time responding to angry complaints from customers who are still waiting for late shipments, and the rest of its time trying to convince prospective customers that they can have “any color they want so long as it’s black.”
Police enforcement officials will recognize their own version of this law: arresting narcotics dealers on 30th Street, they find that they have simply transferred the crime center to 40th Street. Or, even more insidiously, they learn that a new citywide outbreak of drug-related crime is the result of federal officials intercepting a large shipment of narcotics—which reduced the drug supply, drove up the price, and caused more crime by addicts desperate to maintain their habit.
Solutions that merely shift problems from one part of a system to another often go undetected because, unlike the rug merchant, those who “solved” the first problem are different from those who inherit the new problem.
When to use it
When designing policies in an organization, anticipate how the solution might create new issues in other departments.
In software development, fixing bugs quickly without understanding the root cause can lead to more bugs later.
In public policy, a law that reduces crime in one area may push it to another neighborhood.
When trying to reduce costs in one part of a supply chain, consider how it might increase costs or delays elsewhere.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
The Rug Merchant and the Snake
Once there was a rug merchant who saw that his most beautiful carpet had a large bump in its center. He stepped on the bump to flatten it out—and succeeded. But the bump reappeared in a new spot not far away. He jumped on the bump again, and it disappeared—for a moment, until it emerged once more in a new place. Again and again he jumped, scuffing and mangling the rug in his frustration; until finally he lifted one corner of the carpet and an angry snake slithered out.
Rebate Program Leading to Sales Drop
A well-established firm may find that this quarter’s sales are off sharply. Why? Because the highly successful rebate program last quarter led many customers to buy then rather than now.
Police Arrests Shifting Crime Location
Police arresting narcotics dealers on 30th Street find that they have simply transferred the crime center to 40th Street. Or, even more insidiously, they learn that a new citywide outbreak of drug-related crime is the result of federal officials intercepting a large shipment of narcotics—which reduced the drug supply, drove up the price, and caused more crime by addicts desperate to maintain their habit.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a current problem in your life or work. Can you trace it back to a previous solution that may have caused it?
When you implement a solution, how can you ensure you are not just shifting the problem to another part of the system?
How can you identify if a solution is merely temporary and likely to create new problems?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Fifth Discipline The Art Practice of the Learning Organization (Peter M. Senge)