The Yes/No Rule
A decision-making heuristic that uses a set of clear yes/no questions to quickly evaluate options, particularly under time pressure and risk. It relies on predefined parameters to simplify complex choices.
THE IDEA
THE YES/NO RULE
HOW TO MAKE A DECISION QUICKLY
A good way to quickly reach a decision is to use the Yes/No rule. It comes into its own when you have to weigh up risks, but have little time. Take the example of somebody who goes to the doctor feeling ill. The doctor makes a diagnosis based on a process of elimination (Does he have a fever? Is his blood pressure too low?).
The Yes/No rule is based on clear parameters, something that can be beneficial not only in medicine but also in management, private life or politics. The book gives a simplified account of US president Barack Obama’s 2013 drone-strike criteria through three questions: Does the targeted person pose a persistent and immediate threat to the American people? Is the USA the only country that can deal with this threat? Will civilians almost certainly not be harmed? In this account, all three questions require a “Yes”. The passage does not establish a complete policy or how particular strikes were approved.
The oldest, shortest words – “yes” and “no” – are those that require the most thought.
When to use it
Making a quick hiring decision when you need to check a few key qualifications.
Deciding whether to invest in a startup by asking yes/no questions about market size, team, and product viability.
Prioritizing tasks by asking 'Is this mission-critical?' and 'Is there a deadline today?'
Evaluating a policy proposal in government by checking if it aligns with core principles via yes/no criteria.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Medical Diagnosis
A doctor uses a series of yes/no questions (fever? low blood pressure?) to quickly narrow down possible conditions.
Obama's Drone Strike Criteria
The book summarizes President Obama’s drone-strike criteria through three yes/no questions: persistent threat? only US can act? no civilian harm? It presents 'yes' to each as a requirement, without supplying a complete policy or evidence about individual approvals.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent difficult decision you faced. What three yes/no questions could you have used to simplify it?
How can you identify the most critical parameters to turn into yes/no questions for a recurring decision?
When might the Yes/No rule be inappropriate or oversimplify a complex situation?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Decision Book Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking