The Two Steps for a Chronology
A structured method for constructing a timeline of events to analyze a decision or problem, emphasizing listing dates first to build a chronology, with a special form called 'placement' used to understand the mindset of decision-makers.
THE IDEA
The Two Steps for a Chronology
We construct a chronology (time line) in two simple steps:
Step 1: As you are researching a decision or problem, make a list of relevant events and their dates, but always list the dates first.
Listing dates first facilitates constructing the chronology. Do not include obviously marginal events, but if you must err, err on the side of including them. Their true significance will likely become apparent when the chronology is completed.
Step 2: Construct a chronology, crossing off events on the list as they are included.
The chronology can be either horizontal or vertical, whichever you find easier to analyze and interpret.
A special form of time line is what Neustadt and May call “placement,” which means arraying chronologically the events in public history and details in private life that may affect the mind-set or viewpoint of a decision maker whether the latter be a person or an organization. From this history and details we draw inferences about the decision maker’s thinking—motives, prejudices, and so on. The source refers to a placement of former Secretary of State Dean Rusk in Table 6-1 and a further discussion in Chapter 12. Neither is included here.
When to use it
Analyzing a business decision by mapping out key market events and internal company actions chronologically.
Understanding the perspective of a political opponent by constructing a placement timeline of their personal history and public engagements.
Debugging a project failure by listing all relevant events in order of occurrence to identify causal chains.
Preparing for a negotiation by charting the timeline of previous interactions and changes in each party's circumstances.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Placement of Dean Rusk
The source names Neustadt and May’s placement of Dean Rusk as an example, but the actual timeline is absent. A placement would arrange relevant public events and personal experiences by date, then use them to form hypotheses about his perspective.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent decision you made. How might constructing a chronology of events leading up to that decision have changed your understanding of the situation?
Consider a historical leader. What personal and public events could be placed on a timeline to better understand their motivations during a key decision?
How can listing dates before events help avoid overlooking marginal factors that later prove significant?
References
- Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers — Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May (1986)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Thinkers Toolkit by Morgan D Jones