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Mental Models

The Targeting Principle

Know what you’re looking for before analyzing data to separate relevant signals from noise, preventing wasted effort on irrelevant information and sharpening decision-making.

THE IDEA

Most Information Is Irrelevant

When it comes to getting information that’s relevant to the decision, remember this:

THE TARGETING PRINCIPLE: Know what you’re looking for before you start sorting through the data.

If you don’t know what you’re looking for, you’re unlikely to find it, just as you’re unlikely to hit the target if you don’t know what you’re aiming at. When you don’t know what’s important, you miss things that are relevant and spend a lot of time on things that are irrelevant.

Most information is irrelevant. Knowing what to ignore—separating the signal from the noise—is the key to not wasting valuable time. Think, for example, of investment decisions. The best investors know which variables probabilistically govern the outcomes, and they pay attention to those. They don’t ignore everything else, but focusing primarily on those variables allows them to filter massive amounts of information very quickly.

People who can quickly distinguish what matters from what doesn’t gain a huge advantage in a world where the flow of information never stops.

When to use it

  • Making investment or financial decisions by pre-defining critical indicators.

  • Streamlining product development by focusing on features that directly impact user retention.

  • Improving strategic planning sessions by first agreeing on the 2-3 success metrics that matter most.

  • Enhancing personal productivity by identifying priority tasks before checking email or news.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

Investment Decisions

Before researching a stock, an investor identifies questions about earnings growth, interest rates, and competitive advantages. These questions guide the research and help filter unrelated news. New evidence may still reveal a variable the investor initially missed.

02

Hiring Process

A hiring manager defines the skills and work requirements before reviewing resumes. The criteria help keep impressive but irrelevant details from dominating the assessment.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. What current decision are you making, and have you clearly defined the key variables before gathering information?

  2. How can you intentionally filter out noise in your daily information diet to focus on what truly matters?

  3. Think of a time you wasted effort on irrelevant data. What would you change if you applied the Targeting Principle?

Connected ideas

Another lens can bring the same problem into focus.

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • Clear Thinking Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results (Shane Parrish)
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