The Sweet Trap of Anticipation
Waiting for an unlikely, life-changing event can become a consuming purpose, causing one to sacrifice intermediate rewards and even miss the event itself.
THE IDEA
The Sweet Trap of Anticipation
Yevgenia read Il deserto numerous times; she even learned Italian (and perhaps married an Italian) so she could read it in the original. Yet she never had the heart to reread the painful ending.
I presented the Black Swan as the outlier, the important event that is not expected to happen. But consider the opposite: the unexpected event that you very badly want to happen. Drogo is obsessed and blinded by the possibility of an unlikely event; that rare occurrence is his raison d’être. At thirteen, when she encountered the book, little did Yevgenia know that she would spend an entire life playing Giovanni Drogo in the antechamber of hope, waiting for the big event, sacrificing for it, and refusing intermediate steps, the consolation prizes.
She did not mind the sweet trap of anticipation: to her it was a life worth living; it was worth living in the cathartic simplicity of a single purpose. Indeed, “be careful what you wish for”: she may have been happier before the Black Swan of her success than after.
One of the attributes of a Black Swan is an asymmetry in consequences—either positive or negative. For Drogo the consequences were thirty-five years spent waiting in the antechamber of hope for just a few randomly distributed hours of glory—which he ended up missing.
When to use it
Evaluating whether to pursue a high-risk, high-reward career path versus a more stable but less glamorous one.
Deciding how much time and energy to allocate to a speculative investment versus diversified, lower-return options.
Considering whether to keep waiting for a rare opportunity, such as a startup exit, or accept a smaller opportunity available now.
Reflecting on personal relationships where you might be waiting for a perfect moment rather than enjoying the present.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Yevgenia's Life of Waiting
Yevgenia, inspired by the novel Il deserto, spends her entire life waiting for a monumental success (her Black Swan). She sacrifices intermediate steps and smaller achievements, only to find that the actual success may not bring the happiness she anticipated.
Giovanni Drogo's Antechamber
Taleb describes Giovanni Drogo spending 35 years waiting for a battle that could bring glory, only to miss the event when it arrives. The story illustrates how anticipation can organize a life around an opportunity the person may never enjoy.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
What major life goals are you currently waiting for, and what intermediate steps or 'consolation prizes' are you ignoring?
How might a small chance of a large reward distort your planning? Which costs of waiting would you incur even if the reward never arrived?
In what areas of your life could the 'sweet trap of anticipation' be causing you to over-invest in a single unlikely outcome?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable With a new section On Robustness and Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)