The Status Quo Bias Test
A thought experiment to detect status quo bias: imagine your current situation is no longer the status quo. If you wouldn't actively choose it, your preference may be due to bias.
THE IDEA
THE STATUS QUO BIAS TEST
A friend of mine named David was living in his hometown with his college friends. He had a dream job opportunity in Silicon Valley, but he was torn about whether to take it. After all, he got along great with his college friends, most of whom lived nearby. Was it really worth giving that up for a better job?
So he tried a thought experiment: “Suppose I was already living in San Francisco, working at an exciting and well-paying job. Would I be tempted to quit and move back home to be closer to my college friends?
“No, I wouldn’t,” he realized.
David’s thought experiment revealed that his attitude toward his options was likely being influenced by the “status quo bias,” a motivation to defend whatever situation happens to be the status quo. A leading theory for why we’re biased in favor of the status quo is that we’re loss averse: the pain we feel from a loss outweighs the pleasure we feel from a similar-size gain. That makes us reluctant to change our situation, because even if the change would make us better off overall, we fixate more on what we’ll be losing than what we’ll be gaining.
I call David’s thought experiment the status quo bias test: Imagine your current situation was no longer the status quo. Would you then actively choose it? If not, that’s a sign that your preference for your situation is less about its particular merits and more about a preference for the status quo.
The status quo bias test works on policy choices as well as personal life choices. In 2016, when British citizens were voting on whether to leave or remain in the European Union, one British blogger was torn about how to vote. The question that finally decided things for her was a status quo bias test: “If we weren’t already part of the European Union, would I think it was a good idea to vote to join?” she asked herself. For her, the answer was no.
Whenever you reject some proposed change to society, that’s an opportunity to test yourself for status bias. Consider life extension research. If scientists could figure out how to double the human life span, from roughly 85 years to 170 years, would that be a good thing? Not according to many people I’ve discussed this with. “If humans lived that long, progress would slow to a crawl,” they argue. “We need older generations to die off and make room for younger generations with new ideas.”
To do a status quo bias test, imagine the human life span was naturally 170 years. Now suppose that a genetic mutation reduced the human life span to 85 years. Would you be pleased? If not, then maybe you don’t really think that shorter life spans are worth faster societal change.
When to use it
Evaluating a job offer that requires relocation
Deciding how to vote on a referendum about a political union
Assessing opposition to new technologies like life extension
Reconsidering a long-held routine or habit
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
David's Job Decision
David considered moving to Silicon Valley for a better job but was torn. He used the status quo bias test by imagining he already lived in San Francisco and asked if he would quit to move back home. He realized he wouldn't, indicating status quo bias.
Brexit Vote
A British blogger tested her view of EU membership by imagining that the UK were not already a member and asking whether she would vote to join. Her answer was no. The counterfactual helped her examine the decision, rather than independently proving that her original preference was biased.
Life Extension Research
Many people oppose doubling human lifespan, citing slower progress. The test: imagine lifespan was naturally 170 years, then a mutation reduced it to 85. Would you be pleased? If not, opposition to life extension may be due to status quo bias.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
In what areas of your life might you be defending the status quo without considering its merits?
Apply the status quo bias test to a current decision: imagine the opposite scenario and see if your preference changes.
Can you identify instances where your reluctance to change is driven by loss aversion rather than rational assessment?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Scout Mindset (Julia Galef)