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Cognitive Biases

The Silent Hero (Invisibility of Prevention)

We fail to recognize those who prevent disasters because the disasters never happen, leading to a bias that rewards visible heroics while ignoring unseen preventive contributions.

THE IDEA

A NEW KIND OF INGRATITUDE

It is quite saddening to think of those people who have been mistreated by history. There were the poètes maudits, like Edgar Allan Poe or Arthur Rimbaud, scorned by society and later worshipped and force-fed to schoolchildren. (There are even schools named after high school dropouts.) Alas, this recognition came a little too late for the poet to get a serotonin kick out of it, or to prop up his romantic life on earth. But there are even more mistreated heroes—the very sad category of those who we do not know were heroes, who saved our lives, who helped us avoid disasters. They left no traces and did not even know that they were making a contribution. We remember the martyrs who died for a cause that we knew about, never those no less effective in their contribution but whose cause we were never aware of—precisely because they were successful. Our ingratitude toward the poètes maudits fades completely in front of this other type of thanklessness. This is a far more vicious kind of ingratitude: the feeling of uselessness on the part of the silent hero. I will illustrate with the following thought experiment.

Assume that a legislator with courage, influence, intellect, vision, and perseverance manages to enact a law that goes into universal effect and employment on September 10, 2001; it imposes the continuously locked bulletproof doors in every cockpit (at high costs to the struggling airlines)—just in case terrorists decide to use planes to attack the World Trade Center in New York City. I know this is lunacy, but it is just a thought experiment (I am aware that there may be no such thing as a legislator with intellect, courage, vision, and perseverance; this is the point of the thought experiment). The legislation is not a popular measure among the airline personnel, as it complicates their lives. But it would certainly have prevented 9/11.

The person who imposed locks on cockpit doors gets no statues in public squares, not so much as a quick mention of his contribution in his obituary. “Joe Smith, who helped avoid the disaster of 9/11, died of complications of liver disease.” Seeing how superfluous his measure was, and how it squandered resources, the public, with great help from airline pilots, might well boot him out of office. Vox clamantis in deserto. He will retire depressed, with a great sense of failure. He will die with the impression of having done nothing useful. I wish I could go attend his funeral, but, reader, I can’t find him. And yet, recognition can be quite a pump. Believe me, even those who genuinely claim that they do not believe in recognition, and that they separate labor from the fruits of labor, actually get a serotonin kick from it. See how the silent hero is rewarded: even his own hormonal system will conspire to offer no reward.

Now consider again the events of 9/11. In their aftermath, who got the recognition? Those you saw in the media, on television performing heroic acts, and those whom you saw trying to give you the impression that they were performing heroic acts. The latter category includes someone like the New York Stock Exchange chairman Richard Grasso, who “saved the stock exchange” and received a huge bonus for his contribution (the equivalent of several thousand average salaries). All he had to do was be there to ring the opening bell on television—the television that, we will see, is the carrier of unfairness and a major cause of Black Swan blindness.

Who gets rewarded, the central banker who avoids a recession or the one who comes to “correct” his predecessors’ faults and happens to be there during some economic recovery? Who is more valuable, the politician who avoids a war or the one who starts a new one (and is lucky enough to win)?

It is the same logic reversal we saw earlier with the value of what we don’t know; everybody knows that you need more prevention than treatment, but few reward acts of prevention. We glorify those who left their names in history books at the expense of those contributors about whom our books are silent. We humans are not just a superficial race (this may be curable to some extent); we are a very unfair one.

When to use it

  • In public health, underfunding prevention programs (e.g., vaccines) because they don't yield visible results.

  • In business, employees who prevent security breaches or errors rarely get as much recognition as those who fix them after the fact.

  • In personal relationships, thanking someone for stopping a potential argument before it starts.

  • In policy-making, politicians who avoid crises are often overlooked compared to those who manage crises heroically.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

The Legislator Who Prevented 9/11

In Taleb’s thought experiment, a hypothetical legislator enacts a law on September 10, 2001, requiring locked cockpit doors, which prevents the 9/11 attacks. He receives no recognition, is seen as wasteful, and dies feeling useless.

02

War Avoidance vs War Winning

Taleb asks why a politician who avoids a war may receive less recognition than one who starts and wins one. The comparison directs attention to the difficulty of recognizing a disaster that never occurred.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. Can you think of a time when a preventive measure you took went unnoticed? How did that feel?

  2. How can we better appreciate the silent heroes in our lives?

  3. What systems can we create to reward prevention rather than just reaction?

Connected ideas

Another lens can bring the same problem into focus.

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable With a new section On Robustness and Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
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