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Cognitive Biases

The Problem of Insulation

Taleb calls attention to insulation between a person’s theories and everyday conduct. He argues that an expert’s willingness to use an applicable method personally is a useful test of conviction and exposure to its consequences.

THE IDEA

The Problem of Insulation

The system does not give researchers the incentive to be a Malraux. The great skeptic Hume was said to leave his skeptical angst in the philosophical cabinet, then go party with his friends in Edinburgh (though his idea of partying was rather too … Edinburgh). The philosopher Myles Burnyeat called this the “problem of insulation,” particularly with skeptics who are skeptics in one domain but not another. He provides the example of a philosopher who puzzles about the reality of time, but who nonetheless applies for a research grant to work on the philosophical problem of time during next year’s sabbatical—without doubting the reality of next year’s arrival. For Burnyeat, the philosopher “insulates his ordinary first order judgments from the effects of his philosophizing.” Sorry, Professor Doctor Burnyeat; I agree that philosophy is the only field (and its sibling, pure mathematics) that does not need to connect to reality. But then make it a parlor game and give it another name …

Likewise, Gerd Gigerenzer reports a more serious violation on the part of Harry Markowitz, who started a method called “portfolio selection” and received the same iatrogenic Swedish Riskbank prize (called “Nobel” in economics) for it, along with other fragilistas such as Fragilista Merton and Fragilista Stiglitz. I spent part of my adult life calling it charlatanism, as it has no validity outside of academic endorsements and causes blowups (as explained in the Appendix). Well, Doctor Professor Fragilista Markowitz does not use his method for his own portfolio; he has recourse to more sophisticated (and simpler to implement) cabdrivers’ methodologies, closer to the one Mandelbrot and I have proposed.

I believe that forcing researchers to eat their own cooking whenever possible solves a serious problem in science. Take this simple heuristic—does the scientific researcher whose ideas are applicable to the real world apply his ideas to his daily life? If so, take him seriously. Otherwise, ignore him. (If the fellow is doing pure mathematics or theology, or teaching poetry, then there is no problem. But if he is doing something applicable, then: red flag.)

This brings us to Triffat-type fakeness compared to Seneca, the talker versus the doer. I applied this method of ignoring what an academic writes and focusing on what he does when I met a researcher on happiness who held that anything one makes beyond $50,000 does not bring any additional happiness—he was then earning more than twice that at a university, so according to his metric he was safe. The argument seen through his “experiments” published in “highly cited papers” (that is, by other academics) seemed convincing on paper—although I am not particularly crazy about the notion of “happiness” or the vulgarity of the modern interpretation of “seeking happiness.” So, like an idiot, I believed him. But a year or so later, I heard that he was particularly avid for dollars and spent his time on the road speaking for fees. That, to me, was more sufficient evidence than thousands of citations.

When to use it

  • Evaluating an expert’s recommendation by asking whether they use it themselves, what constraints they face, and what evidence supports the method.

  • Self-reflection in professional development: identify gaps between your stated values and daily behavior.

  • Improving decision-making in finance or business by ensuring that the methods you recommend are also used by you personally.

  • Debiasing academic research by requiring practitioners to have 'skin in the game'.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

Hume's Insulation

The great skeptic David Hume was known to leave his philosophical skepticism about causality and the external world behind when he left his study, and instead socialized without doubt. He insulated his everyday actions from his philosophical conclusions.

02

Burnyeat's Philosopher of Time

A philosopher who questions the reality of time nevertheless applies for a research grant to work on the philosophy of time, thereby assuming the reality of 'next year'—a clear example of insulating first-order judgments from second-order skepticism.

03

Markowitz's Portfolio Method

Harry Markowitz, who developed the 'portfolio selection' method in finance (for which he won a Nobel), did not use his own method for his personal investments; instead, he used simpler approaches like those of taxi drivers.

04

The Happiness Researcher

Taleb describes a researcher who claimed that income beyond $50,000 did not increase happiness but pursued lucrative speaking fees. He treats this as a gap between the researcher’s claims and behavior; the account does not independently establish what motivated the researcher or whether the finding was wrong.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. In what areas of your life do you hold strong intellectual beliefs that you do not actually act upon?

  2. Think of a time when you advocated a policy or principle but failed to apply it personally. What drove that insulation?

  3. How could you adopt a personal rule to ensure your theories and actions are aligned?

Connected ideas

Another lens can bring the same problem into focus.

Often confused with

References

  1. Myles Burnyeat's work on skepticism — Myles Burnyeat
  2. Gerd Gigerenzer's reports on Markowitz — Gerd Gigerenzer
  3. Portfolio Selection — Harry Markowitz (1952)

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • Antifragile (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
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