The Grueness of Emerald
The same past observations can fit theories that make different predictions about the future. Taleb’s examples illustrate why agreement with past data alone may not distinguish competing explanations.
THE IDEA
The Grueness of Emerald
Recall the turkey problem. You look at the past and derive some rule about the future. Well, the problems in projecting from the past can be even worse than what we have already learned, because the same past data can confirm a theory and also its exact opposite! If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean that either a) you are more likely to be immortal or b) that you are closer to death. Both conclusions rely on the exact same data. If you are a turkey being fed for a long period of time, you can either naïvely assume that feeding confirms your safety or be shrewd and consider that it confirms the danger of being turned into supper. An acquaintance’s unctuous past behavior may indicate his genuine affection for me and his concern for my welfare; it may also confirm his mercenary and calculating desire to get my business one day.
When to use it
In scientific research, when two competing theories both predict the same observations.
In business, when interpreting customer data can support both positive and negative conclusions.
In personal relationships, when a friend's actions can be seen as either caring or manipulative.
In data analysis, when historical trends can be used to argue for both caution and confidence.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Survival and Immortality
If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean either that you are more likely to be immortal or that you are closer to death. Both conclusions rely on the exact same data.
The Turkey's Dilemma
If you are a turkey being fed for a long period of time, you can either naively assume that feeding confirms your safety or be shrewd and consider that it confirms the danger of being turned into supper.
Acquaintance's Behavior
An acquaintance's unctuous past behavior may indicate his genuine affection for me and his concern for my welfare; it may also confirm his mercenary and calculating desire to get my business one day.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
How can you identify when the same data supports two opposite conclusions in your own decision-making?
What methods can help you decide between competing interpretations of past evidence?
Can you think of a real-world situation where you observed this paradox?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable With a new section On Robustness and Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)