The Chasm – Diffusion Model
Diffusion models describe how innovations spread from innovators and early adopters to a broader public. The chasm metaphor focuses on the difficulty of reaching people who want stronger evidence or different benefits before adopting.
THE IDEA
The Chasm – The Diffusion Model
Why is it that some ideas – including stupid ones – take hold and become trends, while others bloom briefly before withering and disappearing from the public eye?
The sociologist Everett Rogers described the way in which a catchy idea or product becomes popular as “diffusion.” One of the most famous diffusion studies is an analysis by Bruce Ryan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in Greene County, Iowa. The new type of corn was better than the old sort in every way, yet it took twenty-two years for it to become widely accepted.
The diffusion researchers called the farmers who switched to the new corn as early as 1928 “innovators,” and the somewhat bigger group that was infected by them ‘“early adopters’.” They were the opinion leaders in the communities, respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and then joined them. They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the “skeptical masses,” those who would never change anything before it had been tried out by the successful farmers. But at some point even they were infected by the “hybrid corn virus,” and eventually transmitted it to the die-hard conservatives, the “stragglers.”
Translated into a graph, this development takes the form of a curve typical of the progress of an epidemic. It rises, gradually at first, then reaches the critical point of any newly launched product, when many products fail. The critical point for any innovation is the transition from the early adopters to the skeptics, for at this point there is a “chasm.” According to the US sociologist Morton Grodzins, if the early adopters succeed in getting the innovation across the chasm to the skeptical masses, the epidemic cycle reaches the tipping point. From there, the curve rises sharply when the masses accept the product, and sinks again when only the stragglers remain.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. – Mahatma Gandhi
See also: Pareto principle, Long-tail model
When to use it
Launching a new technology product and planning marketing strategies to reach different adopter categories.
Introducing a new business process within an organization, starting with a pilot group of early adopters.
Spreading a social or political movement by first gaining support from influential early adopters.
Marketing a new app or service by initially targeting tech-savvy innovators and then scaling to the broader public.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Hybrid Corn Adoption in Iowa (1930s)
A study by Ryan and Gross tracked how hybrid corn seeds spread among farmers. Innovators adopted in 1928, followed by early adopters (respected farmers), then the skeptical majority took until the late 1930s, and finally stragglers. The process took 22 years despite the clear advantage of the new corn.
iPod Launch
The iPod can be examined through the diffusion model: what appealed to early enthusiasts, and what made it useful to a broader market? This is an application of the framework; the excerpt does not provide an iPod case study.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent innovation that failed to gain widespread adoption. What factors prevented it from crossing the chasm?
How can you identify the early adopters in a target market for a new product or idea?
What strategies can help bridge the gap between early adopters and the skeptical majority?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Decision Book Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking