Study 1: Impact of Risk Factor Awareness on Optimistic Bias
Study 1 examines whether alerting participants to relevant risk factors reduces optimistic biases. However, providing risk-factor information without personal comparative data may actually increase unrealistic optimism due to biased processing.
THE IDEA
STUDY 1
Study 1 was designed to test whether alerting participants to relevant risk factors would reduce optimistic biases. Participants estimated their likelihood of experiencing several hazards either before or after they had read about the major risk factors for these hazards and reported their standing on these factors. We hypothesized that participants who had estimated their overall risk after responding to the list of risk factors would show less optimism than would participants who had not seen this list.
We recognized, however, that providing risk-factor information might have undesirable consequences. If processing of information about personal risks tends to be biased, then pointing out previously overlooked risk factors – without telling participants how they or their peers stand on these factors – would provide new opportunities for biased interpretation and could actually increase unrealistic optimism (Gerrard et al., 1991; Weinstein, 1983).
When to use it
Testing whether a health-risk message changes comparative risk estimates, and whether information about peers improves those estimates.
Personal decision-making: when assessing risks, actively seek out information about your personal risk factors relative to others.
Risk communication: be aware that simply providing risk factors may backfire if not framed properly.
Education: teaching about cognitive biases should include strategies to overcome biased processing of risk information.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Health Risk Estimation
The study asked participants to estimate their likelihood of experiencing hazards before or after reviewing relevant risk factors. The excerpt does not identify the hazards or report the results, so it cannot establish whether optimism increased or decreased.
Car Accidents
As a hypothetical application, a driver reads a list of accident risk factors and then rates their own risk relative to other drivers. The study’s question is whether reviewing such factors changes comparative optimism; no car-accident finding is supplied here.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
How might providing information about risk factors without comparative data affect your own optimistic biases?
Can you think of a situation where you underestimated a risk because you were not aware of certain risk factors?
Why might simply pointing out risk factors not be enough to reduce optimistic bias?
References
- Gerrard et al., 1991 — Gerrard et al. (1991)
- Weinstein, 1983 — Weinstein (1983)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)