Show that uncertainty is justified
When communicating about uncertain topics, explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty and setting realistic expectations can make you more persuasive than claiming certainty. Examples include Jeff Bezos discussing Amazon's uncertain success and a lawyer advising clients not to trust attorneys who promise specific outcomes without sufficient information.
THE IDEA
1. Show that uncertainty is justified
Sometimes your audience won’t be aware of how much uncertainty exists “in the world” on the topic you’re speaking about, and they’ll expect you to give answers with more certainty than is actually possible. That’s okay; you just need to set their expectations. Remember how Jeff Bezos warned a CNBC interviewer in 1999 that Amazon’s success was not guaranteed? At the same time, he put that warning in perspective, pointing out that while it was clear that the internet revolution was going to produce some giant companies, it was very difficult to predict in advance which specific companies those would be. He illustrated the principle of unpredictability with an example from the recent past: “If you go back and look at the companies created by the PC revolution, in 1980, you probably wouldn’t have predicted the five biggest winners.”16
In fact, if you show that certainty is unrealistic, you can be more persuasive than someone who states everything with 100 percent certainty. When an attorney meets with a potential client for the first time, the client always asks how much money they can expect to be awarded. It’s tempting for the attorney to give a confident, optimistic estimate, but the reality is that he doesn’t yet have enough information to go on. Instead, here’s what a prosecutor interviewed in How Leading Lawyers Think says in such a situation: “I tell them, ‘Any attorney who answers that either is lying to you or does not know what he’s doing, and you should run like hell.’” 17
When to use it
A product manager presenting future roadmap to stakeholders, acknowledging that features may change based on feedback.
A scientist explaining research findings to the public, emphasizing the limitations and margins of error.
A consultant advising a client on a complex problem, noting that multiple outcomes are possible.
A parent discussing a child's future with them, avoiding false guarantees about career paths.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Jeff Bezos on Amazon's uncertain success
Jeff Bezos warned a CNBC interviewer in 1999 that Amazon's success was not guaranteed, putting it in perspective by noting that while the internet revolution would produce giant companies, it was difficult to predict which ones. He illustrated with the PC revolution example: in 1980, you wouldn't have predicted the five biggest winners.
Lawyer setting realistic expectations for clients
An attorney meets a potential client who asks about expected award. Instead of giving a confident estimate, the lawyer quoted in the book says: 'Any attorney who answers that either is lying to you or does not know what he's doing, and you should run like hell.' (from How Leading Lawyers Think)
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent situation where you felt pressured to be certain. How could you have acknowledged uncertainty instead?
How might acknowledging uncertainty increase your credibility in a negotiation or discussion?
What are the risks of presenting information with false certainty?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Scout Mindset (Julia Galef)