Scenario Tree (Decision Tree)
A scenario tree displays the alternatives in a decision as branches. A group can examine one branch at a time, record eliminations, and see how its remaining choices fit together.
THE IDEA
Scenario Tree (Decision Tree)
A scenario tree (often called a decision tree) is a visual diagram that portrays the scenarios included in a decision-making problem. It helps a group keep track of alternatives rather than jumping repeatedly between them.
Key Features
- Visual focus: Displayed on a screen for all group members to see simultaneously, the tree allows the team to focus on one decision or event point at a time.
- Systematic elimination: Options can be crossed out visually as they are eliminated, making the narrowing process transparent and agreed upon.
- Structured discussion: The group can use the tree to consider each mapped option separately and record what it has discussed.
How It Works
- Identify the major factors in the decision (being careful not to include secondary, inconsequential matters that overcomplicate the tree).
- Map out all alternatives as branches flowing from decision points or event points.
- Discuss each option systematically, using techniques like Pros-Cons-and-Fixes to evaluate each branch.
- Visually eliminate options that do not meet the needs of the decision, narrowing the choices.
- Proceed down the remaining branches until a final decision is reached.
Example from Practice (Executive Leadership Conference)
The administrative staff of a large corporation planned an executive leadership conference at one of three locations: mountains (hiking), beach (swimming/sunbathing), or historic city (sightseeing). They had two options per type and needed to decide on either a two-day or three-day duration. Using a scenario tree, the staff director (Dolores) guided the group:
- First, they decided on three days (eliminating two-day).
- Then they evaluated hiking, swimming, and sightseeing as recreation forms using pros/cons.
- They eliminated hiking and sightseeing, choosing swimming.
- Between Beach A and Beach B, they selected Beach A.
Without the tree, Dolores would have struggled to focus everyone's thinking on one option at a time. The tree enabled systematic elimination and unanimous agreement.
When to use it
Planning a major event with multiple location and schedule options, where stakeholder preferences vary.
Strategic business decisions requiring evaluation of interdependent variables (e.g., product launch with pricing, channel, and timing options).
Project planning where resources must be allocated across competing alternatives, ensuring all options are considered systematically.
Any group decision-making scenario where participants tend to hop between options without thorough evaluation of each.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Executive Leadership Conference Site Selection
A corporate staff needed to choose a conference location among mountains, beach, and city, each with two options, and decide on a 2-day or 3-day duration. Using a scenario tree, the group systematically evaluated each branch: first choosing 3 days, then selecting swimming/sunbathing as the recreation, and finally picking Beach A over Beach B. The tree allowed visual elimination of options and kept the discussion focused.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
How would constructing a scenario tree change how you approach a complex decision with multiple alternatives?
What major factors would you include in a scenario tree for a decision you're currently facing, and how would you avoid including secondary, inconsequential matters?
How could a visible tree help your group notice an overlooked alternative or an option it has discussed much more than the others?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Thinkers Toolkit by Morgan D Jones