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Cognitive Biases

Ripple Effects of Self-Deception

A self-deception can encourage further distorted beliefs as we try to explain other experiences consistently with it. Galef argues that these delayed, unpredictable effects are easy to overlook when weighing the apparent benefit of a comforting belief.

THE IDEA

WE UNDERESTIMATE THE RIPPLE EFFECTS OF SELF-DECEPTION

A trope often milked for comedy on sitcoms is “deception begets more deception.” You’ve seen it before—the protagonist commits some minor misdeed, such as forgetting to buy his wife a Christmas present. To cover it up, he tells a small lie. For example, he gives her the gift he had originally bought for his father, pretending he bought it for her. But then he needs to tell another lie to cover the first lie: “It’s a necktie . . . uh, right, I’ve been wanting to tell you I think you look sexy in neckties!” . . . and by the end of the episode, he’s stuck with his wife wearing neckties every day.

The trope is exaggerated for comic effect, but it’s based on a real phenomenon: when you tell a lie, it’s hard to predict exactly what you’ve committed your future self to.

Just like the lies we tell others, the lies we tell ourselves have ripple effects. Suppose you tend to rationalize away your own mistakes, and consequently you see yourself as more perfect than you really are. This has a ripple effect on your views of other people: Now, when your friends and family screw up, you might not be very sympathetic. After all, you never make such mistakes. Why can’t they just be better? It’s not that hard.

Or suppose that for the sake of your self-esteem, you view yourself through rose-colored glasses, judging yourself to be more charming, interesting, and impressive than you actually appear to other people. Here’s one possible ripple effect: How do you explain the fact that women don’t seem to be interested in dating you, given what a great catch you are? Well, maybe they’re all shallow.

But that conclusion sets off a ripple effect of its own. How do you explain why your parents, friends, or internet commenters keep trying to convince you that most women aren’t as shallow as you think? Well, I guess you can’t trust people to tell it like it is—people just say what they think they’re supposed to say, don’t they? That conclusion, in turn, sends still more ripples through your map of reality.

These are examples for the sake of illustration, and not necessarily representative ones. It’s hard to know exactly how the ripple effect of a particular act of self-deception will hurt you in the future, or if it will at all. Perhaps in many instances the harm is negligible. But the fact that the harm is delayed and unpredictable should ring an alarm bell. This is exactly the kind of cost we tend to neglect when we’re intuitively weighing costs and benefits. Ripple effects are yet more reason to suspect that we underestimate the cost of deceiving ourselves—and are therefore choosing soldier mindset too often and scout mindset not often enough.

When to use it

  • When evaluating a personal decision that involves a 'small' self-deception (e.g., downplaying a mistake) to anticipate downstream consequences.

  • In conflict resolution, to identify how one party's self-deception might be fueling a larger misunderstanding.

  • When designing educational content about cognitive biases, to illustrate the interconnected nature of biases and their escalating costs.

  • In leadership, to check for patterns where leaders' self-deceptions create ripple effects across teams (e.g., unrealistic self-assessment leading to blame culture).

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

Rationalizing mistakes leads to harsher judgment of others

If you habitually rationalize away your own mistakes, you may see yourself as more perfect than you really are. This can lead to being unsympathetic when friends or family make mistakes, because you assume you never do the same.

02

Rose-colored self-view leads to blaming others and distrust

If you overestimate your own charm and appeal (e.g., think you are a 'great catch'), you might explain romantic rejection by claiming women are shallow. Then, to reconcile that with people who disagree, you may conclude that others don't speak honestly, creating a web of distorted beliefs.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. Think of a time you were dishonest with yourself about a minor flaw. What subsequent beliefs or behaviors did that trigger?

  2. How might your self-deceptive rationalizations about one area (e.g., work performance) spiral into unfair judgments about others?

  3. In what ways might the ripple effects of self-deception be invisible to you today, only to cause harm later? How could you proactively look for them?

Connected ideas

Another lens can bring the same problem into focus.

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • The Scout Mindset (Julia Galef)
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