Questionable Cause
Concluding that one thing caused another, simply because they are regularly associated.
THE IDEA
Questionable Cause
Also called cum hoc ergo propter hoc, this error infers causation merely from an association. Possible alternatives include a common cause, reverse causation, or coincidence.
Logical Form
The source does not supply a logical form or the original statements for its examples.
Example #1
The source says the error should be clear, but the argument itself is absent.
Example #2
The source rejects an inference from an association between homosexuality and AIDS to a claim that sexual orientation causes AIDS. An association between a group and an outcome does not, by itself, establish a causal mechanism. The fragment does not supply population data or the original argument.
Exception
A causal conclusion can be justified when supported by evidence beyond the association alone.
Variations
Juxtaposition can imply a causal connection by placing items together without stating the connection. Reversing causality assigns the causal direction backward. In either case, ask what evidence supports the proposed direction or mechanism.
When to use it
In scientific research, when interpreting observational studies, one must be cautious not to infer causation from correlation.
In business, when sales increase after a marketing campaign, it may not be solely due to the campaign; other factors could be at play.
In daily life, when people observe that ice cream sales and drowning incidents both increase in summer, they might falsely conclude that ice cream causes drowning, ignoring the confounding variable of hot weather.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Homosexuality and AIDS
Inferring that sexual orientation causes AIDS merely from an association between a group and the condition confuses group membership with a causal explanation. The association alone cannot establish the cause.
Car Washing and Rain
Someone notices that it often rains after they wash their car, so they conclude that washing their car causes rain. This ignores the possibility of a common cause or coincidence.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Can you think of a time when you assumed a causal relationship based on correlation? What might be the actual cause?
What are some common statistical pitfalls that lead to the questionable cause fallacy?
How can you test a suspected causal relationship to avoid this fallacy?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Logically Fallacious - The Ultimate Collection of Over 300 Logical Fallacies