Projection Bias
The tendency to assume others share our thinking patterns, attitudes, and beliefs, and to incorrectly predict our own future preferences based on current states.
THE IDEA
Projection Bias
“ You
are all invited to a fun get together at my house where we will watch popular Japanese anime, eat caramel popcorn, paint each other’s faces and play hide and seek in the yard”
The party host assumes everyone shares their definition of fun. The source uses projection bias to describe assuming that others share our preferences, attitudes, or beliefs. This overlaps with false-consensus bias: overestimating how widely others agree with us.
Projection can also affect predictions about our future preferences. A hungry shopper may buy more food than they will want later because they expect their future self to feel as hungry as they do now.
Before planning for other people, ask what they prefer. Before committing your future self, consider how a change in hunger, mood, circumstances, or experience could alter what you want.
When to use it
When planning social events, avoid assuming others share your definition of fun.
When shopping for groceries while hungry, be aware that your future self may not want as much food.
When making long-term career or relationship decisions, consider that your current preferences may change.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Party Host Assumption
The host invites friends to watch anime, eat popcorn, paint faces, and play hide and seek, assuming everyone shares their definition of fun.
Hungry Shopper
A very hungry person buys more food than usual, assuming their future self will be just as hungry.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a time when you assumed someone else shared your opinion. Was that assumption correct? How could you have checked?
Consider a future decision you are planning. Are you basing it on your current state? How might your preferences change?
How can you actively avoid projection bias when planning events or making group decisions?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The 25 Cognitive Biases Uncovering The Myth Of Rational Thinking (Charles Holm)