Prejudgments and Premature Closure
A set of questions for examining initial commitments, self-interest, suppressed dissent, and premature closure before making a decision.
THE IDEA
2. Prejudgments and Premature Closure
2a. Initial Prejudgments
- “Do (any of) the decision makers stand to gain more from one conclusion than another?”
- “Was anyone already committed to a conclusion? Is there any reason to suspect prejudice?”
- “Did dissenters express their views?”
- “Is there a risk of escalating commitment to a losing course of action?”
2b. Premature closure; excessive coherence
- “Was there accidental bias in the choice of considerations that were discussed early?”
- “Were alternatives fully considered, and was evidence that would support them actively sought?”
- “Were uncomfortable data or opinions suppressed or neglected?”
When to use it
A hiring committee evaluating candidates, checking for initial biases toward a particular applicant.
A venture capital firm assessing startups, avoiding premature commitment to a pitch that fits a preconceived narrative.
A policy team reviewing evidence for a new regulation, ensuring dissenting studies are not ignored.
A medical team diagnosing a patient, avoiding premature closure on a common diagnosis while missing rarer conditions.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Managerial Project Selection
A manager strongly advocates for a project that aligns with their department's goals, dismissing risks and ignoring early warnings. The questions in 2a prompt the team to examine possible self-interest and commitment bias.
Product Team Brainstorming
A team quickly converges on a promising feature idea without exploring alternatives, later discovering a competitor's superior solution. The 2b checklist prompts deeper evaluation of alternatives and uncomfortable data.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent decision you were part of: Did anyone stand to gain more from one outcome than another?
When did you last stop considering alternatives? Were all options fully explored before closure?
How do you ensure dissenting opinions are heard and not suppressed in your team or group?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment (Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony etc.)