People Judge You on Social Confidence, Not Epistemic Confidence
In the studies Galef describes, social cues such as participation, tone, and composure influenced perceived competence more than statements of certainty did. She uses these findings to argue that people can communicate confidently while remaining honest about uncertainty.
THE IDEA
PEOPLE JUDGE YOU ON SOCIAL CONFIDENCE, NOT EPISTEMIC CONFIDENCE
Galef distinguishes social confidence—how assured you appear in an interaction—from epistemic confidence—how certain you say you are about a claim. The studies below examine their effects on other people’s impressions.
In one study, university students worked together in small groups while researchers videotaped their interactions.11 Afterward, the researchers went through the video and coded each student’s behavior on various aspects of epistemic confidence (e.g., how many times did they claim to be confident in their own estimate?) and social confidence (e.g., How much did they participate in the discussion? Did they seem calm and relaxed?).
Then the researchers screened the videos for other people and asked them: “How competent does each of these students seem to you?” The competence ratings the students received were predominantly based on how much social confidence they displayed. The more a student participated in conversation, used an authoritative tone of voice, and had a relaxed demeanor, the more competent they seemed. By comparison, the students’ epistemic confidence hardly mattered. Their statements about how certain they were in their answer, how easy the task was for them, or how competent they were at the task were barely or not at all significant.
TABLE ADAPTED FROM C. ANDERSON ET AL. (2012), TABLE 2. PAGE 10. * = RESULTS SIGNIFICANT AT p < 0.05; ** = RESULTS SIGNIFICANT AT p < 0.01
The table itself is not reproduced in this excerpt.
Other researchers have investigated this same question using actresses trained to display different combinations of high versus low social confidence, and high versus low epistemic confidence, to see how much difference each factor makes.12 Their results were similar. Whether or not participants judged an actress to be “confident” depended largely on her social cues, such as making eye contact, speaking evenly, and using decisive hand gestures. It made comparatively little difference whether she spoke with high certainty (“I’m positive that . . .”) or low certainty (“I think maybe . . .”).
People sometimes bemoan the fact that “superficial” things like posture and voice make such a difference in how we judge each other. But on the bright side, that means that projecting competence doesn’t require self-deception. You can boost your social confidence through practice speaking up in groups, hiring a speech coach, dressing better, improving your posture—all without compromising your ability to see things clearly.
Galef uses Amazon’s early fundraising as an anecdotal illustration of the impression social confidence can make. The company’s big break came in the spring of 1996, when it received a visit from John Doerr, a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, one of the most prestigious venture capital firms in Silicon Valley (now just Kleiner Perkins). Doerr left that meeting wowed by Amazon and ready to invest. Even better, the interest from a high-profile venture capitalist triggered a bidding war that drove Amazon’s valuation up from $10 million to $60 million.
So, what exactly sold Doerr on Amazon? I’ll let him explain: “I walked into the door and this guy with a boisterous laugh who was just exuding energy comes bounding down the steps. In that moment, I wanted to be in business with Jeff.”13
When to use it
Job interviews: Candidates who display strong social confidence (eye contact, steady voice) are often perceived as more competent, even if their qualifications are similar to others.
Presentations: A speaker with engaging body language and confident tone can be more persuasive than one who constantly hedges or shows uncertainty.
Networking events: Making a strong first impression through social confidence can lead to opportunities, as seen in the Amazon example.
Team evaluations: Managers might unconsciously favor team members who are socially confident over those who quietly demonstrate deep knowledge.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Amazon Pitch to John Doerr
Galef recounts Jeff Bezos’s 1996 meeting with John Doerr, who later described being struck by Bezos’s laugh and energy. She reports that investor interest drove Amazon’s valuation from $10 million to $60 million. The story illustrates Doerr’s favorable impression; it does not isolate the cause of his investment or establish Bezos’s degree of certainty.
Student Group Study
Researchers videotaped university students in groups and coded their epistemic and social confidence. When other people rated the students' competence, the ratings were primarily driven by social confidence (e.g., participation, tone, posture) rather than epistemic confidence (e.g., stated certainty).
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent evaluation of someone's competence. Was it based more on their social confidence or their epistemic confidence? How might that affect your judgment?
How can you improve your own social confidence without compromising your epistemic honesty?
Identify a situation where you or someone else was judged primarily on social confidence. What was the outcome? Could it have been different if epistemic confidence were weighted more heavily?
References
- Anderson, C., et al. (2012). Table 2. — C. Anderson et al. (2012)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Scout Mindset (Julia Galef)