Optimistic Bias (Comparative Optimism)
Comparative optimism concerns seeing one’s own risk as lower than other people’s. The study tests whether describing favorable or unfavorable attributes changes that comparison. The supplied excerpt gives the hypothesis and design, not the findings.
THE IDEA
STUDY 2
Health and safety information is often presented in terms of what not to do. As a result, it is probably easier for people to bring to mind these negative attributes and use them as a standard of comparison than to bring to mind a more appropriate standard of the average person. In fact, one hypothesized origin for optimistic biases is a tendency to compare oneself with a person who embodies nothing but unfavorable attributes – a worst-case stereotype (Perloff & Fetzer, 1986; Weinstein, 1987).
In Study 2, we tried to reduce optimistic biases by presenting risk factors in such a way that participants would see their own attributes as less than ideal. The effects of focusing attention on the positive end of each risk factor (e.g., “Have never gotten drunk”) were contrasted with those of a treatment in which attention was focused on the negative end of each risk factor (e.g., “Get drunk several times a week”). Presumably, allowing participants to see how different they were from the worst-case list would increase their optimism. If a significant difference between these two approaches were found, it would suggest that providing information about what people should do is less likely to create optimistic biases than offering information about what not to do.
When to use it
Testing health messages to see whether readers compare their risk with an appropriate reference group.
Risk assessment in personal finance: helping clients avoid underestimating their own exposure by comparing to worst-case investors.
Medical communication: check how patients interpret comparative risk information rather than assuming a particular wording ensures accuracy.
Policy communication: compare how people understand recommended actions and prohibited behaviors.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Study Framing Example
The study contrasts positively framed attributes, such as 'Have never gotten drunk', with negatively framed ones, such as 'Get drunk several times a week'. The researchers predict that comparison with the unfavorable list could increase optimism; results are not included here.
Real-World Health Messaging
A campaign could test whether describing a heavy smoker leads readers to compare themselves with that extreme case. Compare audience responses before assuming that a positive or negative wording reduces risk misperception.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
In what situations do you find yourself comparing to a worst-case scenario? How might that distort your risk perception?
How could you reframe a health warning message to reduce optimistic bias in your target audience?
Think of a time you underestimated a personal risk. Was it influenced by comparing yourself to an extreme negative example?
Often confused with
References
- Optimistic biases in perceptions of personal risk — Perloff & Fetzer (1986)
- Unrealistic optimism about susceptibility to health problems: Conclusions from a community sample — Weinstein (1987)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)