Ooch

beginner2 min readdecision_making · business · psychology

Ooching means running a small trial before making a larger commitment. It is useful when the trial can answer a relevant question at modest cost, but can become a way to postpone a decision whose uncertainty has already been addressed.

THE IDEA

Ooch

Ooching = running small experiments to test our theories. Rather than jumping in headfirst, we dip a toe in.

• John Hanks at NI ooched with wireless sensors in the Costa Rican jungle. • Physical therapy students volunteer for at least a hundred hours before they enroll. • Legal secretary Peggy made a conscious decision to ooch away from her obsessive editing habits.

Ooching can reveal information that a forecast misses.

• Tetlock’s research showed that experts’ predictions are worse than simple extrapolations from base rates.

The source describes entrepreneurs who test ideas through action rather than rely only on forecasts.

• CarsDirect.com asked: Can we sell one car over the Internet? • Researcher Sarasvathy on attitudes of successful entrepreneurs: “To the extent that we can control the future, we do not need to predict it.” • Intuit’s Scott Cook believes in “leadership by experiment,” not by “politics, persuasion, and PowerPoint.” The successful India mobile-phone service would have failed a debate.

Caveat: Ooching is counterproductive for situations that require commitment.

• The mid-twenties guy who wonders about marine biology should ooch. The guy who knows he needs a degree—but dreads going back—should not.

Common hiring error: We try to predict success via interviews. We should ooch instead.

• Dan Heath wrongly agonized about whether to hire an obviously qualified artist. • Studies show that interviews are less diagnostic than work samples, peer ratings, etc. Can you nix the interview and offer a short-term consulting contract?

Ask what a small experiment could teach you. A trial gives evidence about what happened under its conditions; it does not remove every uncertainty about a larger commitment.

When to use it

Testing a new business idea by selling a small quantity first before full launch.
Deciding whether to switch careers by volunteering or taking a short course in the field.
Evaluating a job candidate by giving a short-term project or consulting contract instead of an interview.
Choosing a college major by auditing a class or shadowing a professional before declaring.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

John Hanks at NI

The source describes John Hanks at NI trying wireless sensors in the Costa Rican jungle, using a field test to learn about their performance.

Physical therapy students

The source describes prospective physical therapy students volunteering for at least a hundred hours before enrollment to gain experience of the work.

Legal secretary Peggy

The source describes Peggy, a legal secretary, experimenting with a change to her habitual approach to editing.

CarsDirect.com

Asked: Can we sell one car over the Internet?

Scott Cook / Intuit

Believes in 'leadership by experiment,' not by 'politics, persuasion, and PowerPoint.' The successful India mobile-phone service would have failed a debate.

Dan Heath's hiring dilemma

The source contrasts Dan Heath’s deliberation over hiring an artist with examining actual work. A relevant work sample can test an ability directly instead of relying only on an interview impression.

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A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

What is a decision you are currently facing where you could 'ooch' by running a small experiment?
How can you replace prediction with action in your next big decision?
Think of a time you committed too early. How might ooching have helped?