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Cognitive Biases

Motivation Without Self-Deception

The self-belief model says confidence motivates effort and makes success more likely, while contemplating failure undermines it. Galef asks whether that is a good reason to become irrationally optimistic, using her own acting ambitions and William James’s mountain-leap analogy.

THE IDEA

When I was sixteen, I seriously considered moving to New York after my high school graduation to pursue a career on the stage. I knew the odds would not be in my favor. Acting is a notoriously difficult way to make a living; stage acting even more so. But I had been bitten by the theater bug, and spent my evenings singing along to my Rent and Les Misérables soundtracks on CD while daydreaming about being on Broadway.

I happened to know a successful stage actor, so I asked him what he thought I should do, given the long odds. “Screw the odds,” he told me. “Everything in life is a risk, but if you want it, you should go for it. If you worry about failing, that’s just going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

Call this the self-belief model of success: If you convince yourself that you will succeed, you’ll be motivated to attempt hard things and persist in the face of setbacks, such that eventually your optimism will be self-fulfilling. Conversely, if you acknowledge the long odds facing you, or contemplate the possibility of failure, you’ll be too discouraged to try, and your pessimism will be a self-fulfilling prophecy as well.

Browsing motivational images on Pinterest or Instagram, you’ll see the self-belief model everywhere. “Whether you think you can or you think you can’t—you’re right,” according to one popular saying attributed to Henry Ford.

Nothing grand in work or life was ever achieved by following the odds. For every rule, there is always an exception and damned if it can’t be you!

If you truly dedicate yourself to your goal, everything is possible. You just have to want it bad enough.

To succeed, you need an unshakeable belief in your goal and your ability to achieve it . . . By preparing for a negative outcome, you’re eroding your confidence and self-belief.

You need to truly believe you will succeed with every fibre in your being.

He doesn’t pop up on many Pinterest boards, but one of the earliest advocates of self-belief was nineteenth-century philosopher William James. In his most famous essay, “The Will to Believe,” he offers an arresting example to make his case: Imagine you’re climbing a mountain. Unfortunately, you’ve gotten yourself stuck on a ledge with no escape—except for a daunting leap to a nearby peak. James says:

Have faith that you can successfully make it, and your feet are nerved to its accomplishment. But mistrust yourself, and think of all the sweet things you have heard the scientists say of maybes, and you will hesitate so long that, at last, all unstrung and trembling, and launching yourself in a moment of despair, you roll in the abyss.

Many situations in our lives are like this, he argued. Choosing to have faith in your success, irrespective of the risk or difficulty, is the only way to summon the will to succeed. Is James right? If you could press a button and become irrationally optimistic about your chances of success—should you?

When to use it

  • Deciding whether to pursue a career in a competitive field (e.g., acting, sports, entrepreneurship).

  • Training for a challenging physical feat (e.g., a marathon, a difficult climb) where self-belief affects performance.

  • Setting ambitious personal or professional goals that require sustained effort despite long odds.

  • Evaluating advice from motivational sources that encourage ignoring probabilities in favor of faith.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

The Actor's Advice

A successful stage actor advised to ignore the odds and pursue acting with full self-belief, claiming that worrying about failure becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

02

The Mountain Leap

William James's example: A climber stuck on a ledge must leap to safety. Faith in success tenses the feet for the leap, while doubt leads to hesitation and failure.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. Think of a time you faced a high-risk goal. Did you adopt the self-belief model or a more realistic assessment? What was the outcome?

  2. In what situations might irrational optimism be essential for success, and when might it lead to harmful self-deception?

  3. How can you balance motivation with honest risk assessment without falling into pessimism?

References

  1. The Will to Believe — William James (1896)

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • The Scout Mindset (Julia Galef)
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