Misconstrual
Misconstrual is a cognitive bias where individuals fail to consider that their specific conceptualization of a future event is only one of many possibilities, leading to inaccurate affective forecasting.
THE IDEA
Misconstrual
It is understandably difficult to forecast one’s reactions to events that one has never experienced because it is difficult to know precisely what those events will entail. Although most people feel certain that they would not enjoy going blind, phrases such as “going blind” actually describe a wide range of events (e.g., slowly losing one’s eyesight due to a congenital defect, or suddenly losing one’s eyesight during an heroic attempt to rescue a child from a burning house) and these events may have an equally wide range of emotional consequences. Research suggests that when people think about events, they often fail to consider the possibility that their particular, momentary conceptualization of the event is only one of many ways in which they might have conceptualized it, and that the event they are imagining may thus be quite different from the event that actually comes to pass (Dunning, Griffin, Milojkovic, & Ross, 1990; Griffin, Dunning, & Ross, 1990; Griffin & Ross, 1991). When forecasters misconstrue an event and imagine it as more powerful than it actually turns out to be, they naturally overestimate the duration of their affective responses.
When to use it
Planning for a major life change like moving or changing jobs.
Evaluating potential outcomes of a medical procedure.
Predicting how you will feel after a political election result.
Making decisions about investments based on expected emotional outcomes.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Going Blind
The phrase 'going blind' can describe vastly different scenarios—slow vision loss due to a congenital defect versus sudden blindness from a heroic act. People often imagine a single, dramatic version and fail to consider the diverse emotional consequences of other possible versions.
Forecasting a Negative Event
Someone might imagine that failing an exam will lead to prolonged misery, but the actual event may involve coping mechanisms, social support, and a different subjective experience than anticipated.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a time you predicted your emotional reaction to a future event. How accurate was your prediction? What aspects of the event did you misconstrue?
Consider the phrase 'going blind'—what different scenarios might it include? How might your emotional reaction differ in each?
How could you compare several plausible versions of a future event before predicting your emotional response?
References
- — Dunning, Griffin, Milojkovic, & Ross (1990)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)