Maxims for Thinking Analytically
A set of analytical maxims that guide clear thinking by simplifying complex problems and embracing uncertainty, including going to extreme or simple cases and thinking probabilistically.
THE IDEA
Maxims for Thinking Analytically
1 – Thinking Straight
- Maxim 1 - When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, go to an extreme case
- Maxim 2 - When you are having trouble getting your thinking straight, go to a simple case
- Maxim 3 – Don’t take refuge in complexity
- Maxim 4 - When trying to understand a complex real-world situation, think of an everyday analogue
2 – Tackling Uncertainty
- Maxim 5 - The world is much more uncertain than you think
- Maxim 6 - Think probabilistically about the world
- Maxim 7 - Uncertainty is the friend of the status quo
When to use it
When analyzing a business problem, simplify by considering the most extreme customer behavior or best/worst case scenarios.
When facing a complex decision at work, find an everyday analogue (e.g., a household chore) to reframe the problem.
When estimating project timelines, think probabilistically: assign probabilities to different outcomes rather than a single estimate.
When evaluating a policy change, consider how uncertainty might entrench the current system and how to overcome that inertia.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Extreme Case in Business
When evaluating a new product strategy, consider what would happen if the product became an instant hit or a complete failure. This helps identify key assumptions and risks.
Everyday Analogue for Complex Systems
When trying to understand traffic congestion in a city, think of how water flows through pipes—this simplifies the dynamics and highlights bottlenecks.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Can you recall a time when you overcomplicated a problem? Which maxim might have helped simplify it?
How does thinking probabilistically change the way you evaluate risks in daily decisions?
In what situations does uncertainty actually favor maintaining the status quo? How can you counteract that?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Maxims for Thinking Analytically The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser (Dan Levy)