Information Processing Biases
Common cognitive biases that affect how information is processed, including availability, inattention to quality, anchoring, and nonregressive prediction.
THE IDEA
3. INFORMATION PROCESSING
3a. Availability and salience
"Are the participants exaggerating the relevance of an event because of its recency, its dramatic quality, or its personal relevance, even if it is not diagnostic?"
3b. Inattention to quality of information
"Did the judgment rely heavily on anecdotes, stories, or analogies? Did the data confirm them?"
3c. Anchoring
"Did numbers of uncertain accuracy or relevance play an important role in the final judgment?"
3d. Nonregressive prediction
"Did the participants make nonregressive extrapolations, estimates, or forecasts?"
When to use it
Evaluating risk perceptions in public health messaging to avoid availability bias.
Designing decision support systems that reduce anchoring effects in forecasting.
Training analysts to check the quality of information before making predictions.
Reviewing past business forecasts for nonregressive extrapolations.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Availability Bias in News Reporting
After a plane crash is widely reported, people overestimate the risk of flying because the event is vivid and recent, even though statistically it remains safer than driving.
Anchoring in Price Negotiations
When negotiating a salary, the first number mentioned (e.g., $50,000) serves as an anchor, making subsequent counteroffers cluster around that value even if it is arbitrary.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent decision you made. Did you rely too heavily on the most recent or dramatic piece of information?
How often do you check the quality of information (e.g., sample size, source credibility) before forming a judgment?
Do you notice potential anchors and adjust for them when negotiating or estimating?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment (Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony etc.)