Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency

Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency

There is a natural human tendency to dislike a person who brings us unpleasant information, even when that person did not cause the bad news. The simple association with it is enough to stimulate our dislike.

Types of Conditioned Reflexes

• Standard conditioned reflex: Responsive behavior is directly triggered by rewards previously bestowed (e.g., buying the same shoe polish after a good experience).
• Mere association reflex: A response is triggered by a coincidental connection, not a causal one.

Examples of Mere Association

• Pricing: Buyers often associate higher price with higher quality, so sellers may raise prices on ordinary products to boost sales (e.g., high-priced power tools, luxury goods).
• Advertising: Ads associate products with positive imagery (e.g., Coke with happy life, pretty girls on shoe polish cans) to influence purchases.
• Military bands: Impressive music is associated with military service to attract and retain soldiers.

Miscalculations from Mere Association

Miscalculations arise from associations with past success, liking/loving, disliking/hating, and bad news.

Past Success

People repeat actions that were accidentally successful, ignoring non-causative factors (e.g., Napoleon and Hitler invading Russia after earlier victories, a gambler winning once and continuing to gamble).

Antidotes:

1. Examine past successes for accidental, non-causative factors.
2. Look for dangerous aspects of new undertakings not present in past successes.

Liking/Loving

Love can blind cognition, as seen in a wife’s false testimony for her husband or mothers defending guilty sons. Franklin advised: "Keep your eyes wide open before marriage and half shut thereafter."

Disliking/Hating

Disliking competitors leads to underappraising their competency and morals, often subconsciously.

Persian Messenger Syndrome

Hating bearers of bad news leads to killing the messenger (literally in ancient Persia, figuratively in modern life). Examples include:

• Union negotiators avoiding unwelcome truths.
• Lawyers prolonging cases to avoid delivering bad news.
• CBS Chairman Bill Paley’s hostility to bad news, leading to poor decisions.

Antidote: Develop a habit of welcoming bad news. At Berkshire, the rule is: "Always tell us the bad news promptly. It is only the good news that can wait."

Favor-Giving and Envy

A favor recipient may dislike the giver due to association with past pain and the giver’s favorable state, sometimes leading to injury. Example: A tenant far behind on rent opposed a landlord’s development plan, citing past "Glotz fellowships" as proof the landlord didn’t need more money.

Classification Stereotypes

Using average group characteristics to judge individuals leads to errors (e.g., assuming an old person is a poor thinker or a woman is bad at math). Antidote: Recognize that average dimensions don’t reliably predict individual dimensions (like drowning in a river averaging 18 inches deep).