Inaccurate Theories (Affective Forecasting Error)
Beliefs learned from culture or past experience can mislead predictions about how an event will feel. Familiarity does not necessarily correct them, because memories of earlier emotions can also be distorted.
THE IDEA
Inaccurate Theories
It may be difficult to forecast one’s affective reactions to events about which one knows little, but it can be just as difficult to forecast one’s affective reactions to events about which one knows quite a bit. Both culture and experience provide people with detailed, domain-specific knowledge about how particular events are likely to make them feel (“A bris is a happy occasion as long as it isn’t mine”), and some of that knowledge is bound to be wrong. For instance, Ross (1989) showed that North Americans vastly overestimate the strength and frequency of the emotional distress that women experience prior to menstruation. One might expect that experience with such ordinary events would cure misconceptions about them, but the ability to remember one’s emotional experiences accurately is so prone to error and distortion that inaccurate theories about the affective consequences of ordinary events may persist indefinitely (Fredrickson & Kahneman 1993; Mitchell & Thompson, 1994). Because some of our acquired wisdom about the emotional consequences of common events is undoubtedly wrong (“Getting rich is the key to permanent happiness”), the affective forecasts that this wisdom generates (“If I win the lottery, I’ll live happily ever after”) are undoubtedly wrong as well.
When to use it
When making significant life decisions (career, finances, relationships), consider that your expectations about emotional outcomes may be based on inaccurate theories rather than accurate past experience.
Policymakers designing interventions (e.g., welfare programs, health campaigns) should test whether they are relying on folk theories of happiness that may not match reality.
In consumer research, forecasts of how much a product will increase well-being are often inflated by inaccurate theories; marketers should account for this in positioning.
Therapy and coaching: help clients examine the accuracy of their affective forecasts, especially for feared or desired events, and correct distorted theories.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Overestimation of Premenstrual Distress
Ross (1989) found that North Americans, both men and women, vastly overestimate the strength and frequency of emotional distress that women experience prior to menstruation. This inaccurate theory persists despite many people having direct experience with menstruation, because memory of emotional experiences is prone to error and distortion.
The Lottery Happiness Fallacy
Someone who believes wealth guarantees permanent happiness may expect a lottery win to make them happy forever. That forecast depends on a claim about lasting emotion, beyond the immediate pleasure or practical benefits of receiving money.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a major life event you anticipated (e.g., a promotion, a move, a breakup). How did your forecast of its emotional impact compare to your actual experience? What inaccurate theory might have influenced your prediction?
Identify a common belief in your culture about the emotional consequences of an event (e.g., 'Having children makes you happier'). How could you test whether this theory is accurate?
Recall a time you were surprised by your own emotional reaction. What memory error or cultural assumption might have led to that inaccurate forecast?
References
- Ross (1989) – Overestimation of menstrual distress — Ross, M. (1989)
- Fredrickson & Kahneman (1993) – Memory for emotional experiences — Fredrickson, B. L. & Kahneman, D. (1993)
- Mitchell & Thompson (1994) – Distortions in emotional memory — Mitchell, T. R. & Thompson, L. (1994)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)