Hot Hand Fallacy (Belief in Streak Shooting)
The hot-hand fallacy infers a higher chance of future success from a recent streak without adequate evidence of dependence. The supplied basketball passage describes a controlled study designed to investigate streaks and players’ predictions; it does not include results.
THE IDEA
STUDY 4: CONTROLLED SHOOTING EXPERIMENT
As an alternative method for eliminating the effects of shot selection and defensive pressure, we recruited members of Cornell’s intercollegiate basketball teams to participate in a controlled shooting study. This experiment also allowed us to investigate the ability of players to predict their performance.
The players were 14 members of the men’s varsity and junior varsity basketball teams at Cornell and 12 members of the women’s varsity team. For each player we determined a distance from which his or her shooting percentage was roughly 50%. At this distance we then drew two 15-ft arcs on the floor from which each player took all of his or her shots. The centers of the arcs were located 60° out from the left and right sides of the basket. When shooting baskets, the players were required to move along the arc between shots so that consecutive shots were never taken from exactly the same spot. Each player was to take 100 shots, 50 from each arc. The players were paid for their participation. The amount of money they received was determined by how accurately they shot and how accurately they predicted their hits and misses. The excerpt does not include the payoff procedure or study results. It mentions analyses paralleling those of the 76ers without supplying that comparison.
When to use it
Coaches deciding whether to run plays for a player who has made several shots in a row.
Investors evaluating a fund manager who has outperformed the market for several consecutive quarters.
Analysts assessing performance streaks in any domain to determine if they are statistically significant or just random variation.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Basketball Player Streak
A basketball player makes three consecutive shots, and spectators conclude that the next shot is more likely to succeed. The streak alone does not establish that conclusion. Assessing it requires evidence about dependence, shot difficulty, defensive pressure, and changes in the player’s condition.
Gambler's Luck
A gambler wins several rounds of roulette in a row and feels that they are on a hot streak, increasing their bets. In reality, each spin is independent, and the streak is just random variation.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
What evidence would distinguish a genuine change in shooting probability from a streak produced by random variation?
In what other areas of life besides sports might the hot hand fallacy influence decision-making?
Which alternative explanations does the controlled design address, and what results would be needed to assess a hot-hand claim?
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)