Goals, Risks, and Acceptable Losses
The Wright brothers achieved powered flight by taking calculated risks and tolerating setbacks, recognizing that progress requires step-by-step evolution and acceptance of potential losses.
THE IDEA
The Successes and Failures of the Wright Brothers at Kittyhawk
Consider the flight of the first powered, controlled, heavier‐than‐air aircraft. The Wright brothers did this on 17 December 1903, in their motorised flyer at Kittyhawk, North Carolina. The first flight that day lasted 12 seconds and covered 37 metres, while the fourth and final flight lasted 59 seconds and covered 260 metres.
Later that day, the flyer was damaged by a gust of wind and never flew again. However, the Wright brothers knew they had made a breakthrough. By 1905 they had designed and built a flyer that flew for 39 minutes, covering 24 miles. By 1909, they had signed a contract with the US Army, and ‘the rest is history’.
In December 1903, the Wright brothers did not have a specific goal other than to keep testing their flyer. Although it was damaged beyond repair, the downside was accepted because the brothers knew that they would make progress only by taking calculated risks and tolerating some setbacks. An ambitious goal therefore calls for deciding which setbacks and losses you are prepared to accept.
To give their achievement more context, the Wright brothers started their journey towards powered flight by working on unpowered gliders in the late 1890s. Their efforts were inspired by the experiments and writings of Sir George Cayley, going as far back as the 1850s, and the inventor and glider pilot Otto Lilienthal during the 1880s until his death (during a glider flight that rose to some 50 metres) in 1896.
So, when you consider the Wright brothers' achievements, it is essential to appreciate just how much this was a combination of
- recognising that the flyer was, in fact, a combination of different systems (flight surfaces, controls, power, etc.) that all needed to work together and
- a step‐by‐step evolution of each piece of the jigsaw puzzle: designing, building and trialling different elements, and the flyer itself.
This was not a simple overnight success story.
The words of Wilbur Wright are still highly relevant today and applicable in many contexts:
‘The [person] who wishes to keep at [a] problem long enough to really learn anything positively must not take dangerous risks. Carelessness and overconfidence are usually more dangerous than deliberately accepted risks’.
When to use it
Developing a new product: accept that early prototypes may fail but provide valuable learning for subsequent iterations.
Career change: tolerate short-term setbacks and financial uncertainty for long-term career growth.
Investment strategy: deciding in advance which losses are affordable and how they affect the rest of a portfolio.
Personal innovation: when pursuing an ambitious goal, recognise that setbacks are inevitable and part of the learning process.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Wright Brothers' Kittyhawk Flight
In December 1903, the Wright brothers achieved the first powered, controlled, heavier-than-air flight. Despite damaging the flyer beyond repair later that day, they accepted the loss as part of the process, knowing that taking calculated risks and tolerating setbacks was necessary for progress.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
How can you apply the principle of acceptable losses to your own projects or goals?
What calculated risks are you currently avoiding due to fear of failure, and what would it mean to deliberately accept them?
How does the step-by-step evolution approach of the Wright brothers compare to your own strategy for tackling complex problems?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Beyond the Five Whys Root Cause Analysis and Systems Thinking (James C. Paterson)