Get Another Job
Taleb criticizes people who knowingly issue ineffectual forecasts because their job requires it. He argues that they should acknowledge their limits and reconsider work that depends on misleading others.
THE IDEA
Get Another Job
The two typical replies I face when I question forecasters’ business are: “What should he do? Do you have a better way for us to predict?” and “If you’re so smart, show me your own prediction.” In fact, the latter question, usually boastfully presented, aims to show the superiority of the practitioner and “doer” over the philosopher, and mostly comes from people who do not know that I was a trader. If there is one advantage of having been in the daily practice of uncertainty, it is that one does not have to take any crap from bureaucrats.
One of my clients asked for my predictions. When I told him I had none, he was offended and decided to dispense with my services. There is in fact a routine, unintrospective habit of making businesses answer questionnaires and fill out paragraphs showing their “outlooks.” I have never had an outlook and have never made professional predictions—but at least I know that I cannot forecast and a small number of people (those I care about) take that as an asset.
There are those people who produce forecasts uncritically. When asked why they forecast, they answer, “Well, that’s what we’re paid to do here.”
My suggestion: get another job.
This suggestion is not too demanding: unless you are a slave, I assume you have some amount of control over your job selection. Otherwise this becomes a problem of ethics, and a grave one at that. People who are trapped in their jobs who forecast simply because “that’s my job,” knowing pretty well that their forecast is ineffectual, are not what I would call ethical. What they do is no different from repeating lies simply because “it’s my job.”
Anyone who causes harm by forecasting should be treated as either a fool or a liar. Some forecasters cause more damage to society than criminals. Please, don’t drive a school bus blindfolded.
When to use it
A financial analyst is pressured to give quarterly market predictions despite lacking a reliable basis for those forecasts.
A business manager requires sales forecasts from the team; a team member admits uncertainty and suggests scenario planning instead.
A journalist asks experts for election predictions; one expert declines, explaining the limits of forecasting.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Client Offended by Lack of Forecast
A client asked for predictions. When told there were none, the client was offended and ended the business relationship.
The 'That's My Job' Forecaster
Forecasters who produce predictions uncritically, responding with 'That's what we're paid to do,' even when they know their forecasts are ineffectual.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Are you in a job that requires you to make predictions? Do you honestly assess the reliability of your forecasts?
How would you respond if a client asked for your outlook and you had none?
What ethical responsibility do forecasters have to admit uncertainty about their predictions?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable With a new section On Robustness and Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)