Gamblers’ Ticks and Pigeons in a Box
A reward that happens to follow an action can encourage a superstitious ritual. Gamblers and traders may repeat such actions because they mistake coincidence for control over an uncertain outcome.
THE IDEA
GAMBLERS’ TICKS AND PIGEONS IN A BOX
On gamblers’ ticks crowding up my life. Why bad taxi-cab English can help you make money. How I am the fool of all fools, except that I am aware of it. Dealing with my genetic unfitness. No boxes of chocolate under my trading desk.
Gamblers may repeat rituals, such as blowing on dice, when a win happens to follow them. The reward can reinforce a belief that the action helped, even when no causal connection has been shown. The comparison with Skinner’s pigeons concerns behavior interpreted as superstitious when food is delivered independently of the animal’s actions.
The subtitle’s references to “bad taxi-cab English”, “I am the fool of all fools, except that I am aware of it”, and “no boxes of chocolate under my trading desk” require the surrounding anecdotes to interpret. Those anecdotes are not included here.
When to use it
Trading and investing: Recognizing that technical patterns may be random ticks, not signals, can prevent overtrading and losses.
Gambling: Understanding superstition helps curb irrational bets in casinos or poker.
Productivity: Identifying personal rituals that feel productive but actually have no causal effect on outcomes (e.g., lucky coffee cups).
Career decisions: Avoiding the narrative trap that a single success (or failure) is a reliable signal of future results.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Dice Rituals
A gambler always blows on the dice before a roll, believing it improves the outcome. Over many trials, the dice are random, but the occasional win reinforces the superstition.
Trading Ticks
A day trader believes stock prices ending in 0 or 5, such as $45.00 or $50.00, are lucky. Without evidence that the rule improves results, occasional winning trades can still reinforce it.
Skinner's Pigeons
Skinner interpreted pigeons’ repeated movements, such as spinning or head-bobbing, as superstitious behavior when food was delivered independently of those actions. The comparison concerns mistaking an incidental association with reward for a causal connection.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
What small rituals or habits do you have when making decisions under uncertainty (e.g., betting, investing, interviews)? Could they be 'gambler’s ticks'?
When has a convincing story made a coincidental sequence seem like a causal relationship?
In what areas of your life do you need to remind yourself that 'I am the fool of all fools'—i.e., that you can be fooled by randomness?
Often confused with
References
- Fooled by Randomness — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001)
- The Black Swan — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2007)
- Skinner, B.F. (1948). 'Superstition' in the Pigeon — B.F. Skinner (1948)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Fooled by Randomness The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)