Fixation on Events
People tend to focus on discrete events and attribute single causes to them, ignoring longer-term patterns and gradual processes that often pose greater threats to survival and success.
THE IDEA
4. THE FIXATION ON EVENTS
Two children get into a scrap on the playground and you come over to untangle them. Lucy says, “I hit him because he took my ball.” Tommy says, “I took her ball because she won’t let me play with her airplane.” Lucy says, “He can’t play with my airplane because he broke the propeller.” Wise adults that we are, we say, “Now, now, children—just get along with each other.” But are we really any different in the way we explain the entanglements we find ourselves caught in? We are conditioned to see life as a series of events, and for every event, we think there is one obvious cause.
Conversations in organizations are dominated by concern with events: last month’s sales, the new budget cuts, last quarter’s earnings, who just got promoted or fired, the new product our competitors just announced, the delay that just was announced in our new product, and so on. The media reinforces an emphasis on short-term events—after all, if it’s more than two days old it’s no longer “news.” Focusing on events leads to “event” explanations: “The Dow Jones average dropped sixteen points today,” announces the newspaper, “because low fourth-quarter profits were announced yesterday.” Such explanations may be true, but they distract us from seeing the longer-term patterns of change that lie behind the events and from understanding the causes of those patterns.
Our fixation on events is actually part of our evolutionary programming. If you wanted to design a cave person for survival, ability to contemplate the cosmos would not be a high-ranking design criterion. What is important is the ability to see the saber-toothed tiger over your left shoulder and react quickly. The irony is that, today, the primary threats to our survival, both of our organizations and of our societies, come not from sudden events but from slow, gradual processes: the arms race, environmental decay, the erosion of a society’s public education system, and decline in a firm’s design or product quality (relative to competitors’ quality) are all slow, gradual processes.
Generative learning cannot be sustained in an organization if people’s thinking is dominated by short-term events. If we focus on events, the best we can ever do is predict an event before it happens so that we can react optimally. But we cannot learn to create.
When to use it
In business strategy, avoid overreacting to quarterly earnings reports and instead analyze multi-year trends in market share, customer satisfaction, and innovation.
In personal finance, focus on long-term investment goals rather than daily market fluctuations.
In public policy, address gradual issues like environmental degradation or educational decline instead of only reacting to crises.
In team management, look for recurring conflicts and process issues rather than blaming individuals for specific incidents.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Playground Dispute
Two children get into a scrap: Lucy hits Tommy because he took her ball; Tommy took the ball because she won't let him play with her airplane; Lucy won't let him play because he broke the propeller. Each sees a single, clear cause for the event, ignoring the ongoing pattern of conflict.
Stock Market Drop
The newspaper announces 'Dow Jones average dropped sixteen points today because low fourth-quarter profits were announced yesterday.' This event-based explanation distracts from longer-term patterns of economic change.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
In what areas of your life or work do you tend to focus on immediate events rather than underlying trends?
How might an event-focused mindset prevent you from identifying gradual, systemic changes that could have greater long-term impact?
Think of a recent problem you attributed to a single cause. What longer-term patterns might have contributed to it?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Fifth Discipline The Art Practice of the Learning Organization (Peter M. Senge)