False Cause
The false cause fallacy occurs when a real or perceived relationship between variables is taken as evidence that one causes the other, often confusing correlation with causation.
THE IDEA
False Cause
Presuming that a real or perceived relationship between different things means that one is the cause of the other.
Pointing to a fancy chart, Lucas shows how temperatures have been rising over the past few centuries, whilst at the same time, the numbers of pirates have been decreasing; thus, pirates cool the world, and global warming is a hoax.
When to use it
Analyzing the relationship between social media use and mental health to avoid assuming that one causes the other.
Evaluating a business claim that a marketing campaign directly increased sales without considering confounding factors.
Interpreting historical trends, such as linking economic prosperity to specific policies without rigorous evidence.
Critiquing news articles that draw causal conclusions from observational data.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Pirates and Global Warming
Pointing to a fancy chart, Lucas shows how temperatures have been rising over the past few centuries, whilst at the same time, the numbers of pirates have been decreasing; thus, pirates cool the world, and global warming is a hoax.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Can you recall an instance where you assumed one event caused another simply because they occurred together?
How would you design an experiment to distinguish between correlation and causation?
Why is it tempting to infer causation from correlation, and what are some safeguards against this fallacy?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Wisdom Theory 100 Mental Models (2020) (Wisdom Theory)