Extreme Anchors
Even extreme or implausible anchors can produce anchoring effects, as demonstrated in studies on estimation tasks and pricing decisions.
THE IDEA
Extreme Anchors
Several studies have found that anchoring occurs even when the anchors are extreme or represent implausible responses to the target question. Strack and Mussweiler (1997) asked subjects, for example, to estimate the year that Einstein first visited the United States after considering anchors of 1215 or 1992. These implausible anchors produced anchoring effects just as large as more plausible anchors (e.g., 1905, 1939). Similarly, Chapman and Johnson (1994) asked subjects to indicate minimum selling prices for monetary lotteries after considering a monetary anchor. Some of the anchors were higher than the most one could win or less than the least one could win in the lottery. Although they were implausible responses for the selling price question, they nevertheless produced an anchoring effect. In a second experiment, anchors of up to 28 times the lottery expected value (EV) also produced anchoring, but at the far extremes these anchors had a smaller proportional effect. Quattrone, Lawrence, Finkel, and Andrus (1981) found similar results. Thus, even extreme anchors produce anchoring effects, although it is possible that plausible and implausible anchors have their effects via different mechanisms (Strack & Mussweiler, 1997).
When to use it
Salary negotiations: A job candidate might ask for an extremely high salary to anchor the discussion upward, even if the initial request is unrealistic.
Retail pricing: Marking a product with a very high original price to make a discounted price seem like a bargain.
Forecasting: Providing an extreme initial estimate in a group discussion can influence the final consensus, even if the estimate is obviously off.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Einstein's visit to the US
Participants were asked to estimate the year Einstein first visited the United States after considering an anchor of 1215 or 1992. Both produced anchoring effects comparable to more plausible anchors like 1905 or 1939.
Lottery selling price
Participants set a minimum selling price for a lottery ticket after considering an anchor higher than the maximum possible win or lower than the minimum win. Even such implausible anchors influenced the final price.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Reflect on a recent decision where an extreme or unrealistic number influenced your judgment. How did it affect the final outcome?
In a negotiation, how might an extreme initial offer serve as an anchor, even if it seems implausible?
In what ways could you guard against being swayed by extreme anchors in your own reasoning?
References
- Anchoring with extreme values in estimation tasks — Strack and Mussweiler (1997)
- Extreme anchors in lottery pricing — Chapman and Johnson (1994)
- Further evidence on extreme anchoring — Quattrone, Lawrence, Finkel, and Andrus (1981)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)