Exception and Routine

intermediate3 min readbehavioral_economics · psychology · decision_science

Exceptional features are more likely to be altered in counterfactual thinking than routine ones, as shown by Kahneman and Tversky's study where people more often undo exceptional aspects of an event to make them normal.

THE IDEA

Exception and Routine

A complex situation may combine some routine and some exceptional features. Kahneman and Tversky (1982) tested the hypothesis that exceptional features are more mutable than routine ones by eliciting alternatives to a stipulated reality. Subjects were given a story describing a fatal road accident, in which a truck driven by a drug-crazed teenager ran a red light and crashed into a passing car, killing Mr. Jones, its occupant. The following instructions were given:

As commonly happens in such situations, the Jones family and their friends often thought and often said, “If only . . .” during the days that followed the accident. How did they continue that thought? Please write one or more likely completions.

Two versions of the story were constructed, labeled route and time, which were identical except for one paragraph. In the route version, the critical paragraph read as follows:

On the day of the accident, Mr. Jones left his office at the regular time. He sometimes left early to take care of household chores at his wife’s request, but this was not necessary on that day. Mr. Jones did not drive home by his regular route. The day was exceptionally clear and Mr. Jones told his friends at the office that he would drive along the shore to enjoy the view.

The time version of this paragraph was as follows:

On the day of the accident, Mr. Jones left the office earlier than usual to attend to some household chores at his wife’s request. He drove home along his regular route. Mr. Jones occasionally chose to drive along the shore, to enjoy the view on exceptionally clear days, but that day was just average.

Both versions suggest route and time as possible attributes that might be changed to undo the accident, but the change introduces an exception in one case, and restores the routine in the other. As predicted, more than 80% of the responses that mentioned either time or route altered the exceptional value and made it normal. The results support two related propositions about the availability of counterfactual alternatives: (1) Exceptions tend to evoke contrasting normal alternatives, but not vice versa; and (2) an event is more likely to be undone by altering exceptional than routine aspects of the causal chain that led to it.

When to use it

When analyzing a failure, be aware that you might disproportionately focus on exceptional factors rather than routine ones.
In product design, consider that users may blame exceptional circumstances for issues that are actually routine.
When reviewing an unsuccessful negotiation, compare the unusual choices that attract attention with routine practices that may also have mattered.
In personal reflection, deliberately consider routine changes that could prevent recurrence.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

Mr. Jones Accident

Participants read a fatal-accident story in which Mr. Jones either took an unusual route at his regular time or left early and followed his usual route. Of the responses mentioning time or route, over 80% changed the unusual feature back to the routine one.

Exam Failure

A student usually studies the evening before an exam but goes out before one disappointing result. Looking back, the student focuses on undoing that unusual outing rather than changing a routine part of their preparation.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

Think of a recent event that you regretted. Which aspects were exceptional and which were routine? Did you focus on changing the exceptional aspects?
How might this bias affect decision-making in business when evaluating past projects?
In what situations might focusing on routine rather than exceptional changes lead to better outcomes?